Rallies during August lacked follow through above the 55-DMA with the close above Friday providing bulls with a boost. Failure to close above the $0.9400 level is a bit of a worry as is the proximity of the Bollinger band top which may limit follow through. In saying that, initial support remains in the $0.9315-28 region to start the week with bears needing a close below the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of the renewed bullish pressure and target $0.9181-0.9235
RES 4: $0.9505 – 2014 High July 1
RES 3: $0.9477 – High July 24
RES 2: $0.9426 – High July 25
RES 1: $0.9401 – High Sept 5
LPRICE: $0.9365
SUP 1: $0.9328 – Low Sept 4
SUP 2: $0.9315 – 21-DMA
SUP 3: $0.9263 – Low Sept 3
SUP 4: $0.9255 – Bollinger band base
Fresh 7 month lows continued for the NZD/USD Friday before bouncing back towards initial resistance. The $0.8404-37 region remains key resistance this week with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure and above the 200-DMA to hint at a bigger bounce initially targeting the $0.8537-0.8649 region. The proximity of the Bollinger band base remains the key concern for bears and appears to be limiting follow through.
RES 4: $0.8437 – High Aug 20
RES 3: $0.8388 – 21-DMA
RES 2: $0.8374 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 1: $0.8351 – High Sept 4
LPRICE: $0.8310
SUP 1: $0.8270 – Low Sept 5
SUP 2: $0.8243 – Low Feb 20
SUP 3: $0.8187 – Low Feb 5
SUP 4: $0.8082 – 2014 Low Feb 4
AUD/NZD continues to work its way towards NZ$1.1312-1.1417 with fresh 2014 and 10 month highs Friday. Key support remains at the previous 2014 high of NZ$1.1190 with bears needing a close below to ease bullish pressure. Bears look for a close below NZ$1.1101 to hint at a deeper correction with a close below the 21-DMA (NZ$1.1094) to confirm The key concerns for bulls are O/B studies and the proximity of the Bollinger band top (NZ$1.1286)
RES 4: NZ$1.1417 – Rising daily channel top
RES 3: NZ$1.1388 – High Nov 8 2013
RES 2: NZ$1.1312 – High Nov 20 2013
RES 1: NZ$1.1297 – 2014 High Sept 5
LPRICE: NZ$1.1261
SUP 1: NZ$1.1216 – Low Sept 4
SUP 2: NZ$1.1190 – Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 3: NZ$1.1124 – Low Sept 2
SUP 4: NZ$1.1101 – Previous daily high now support
Marginal fresh 2014 and 17 month highs continued Friday with the Bollinger band top limiting topside follow through. Initial support remains in the Y97.81-98.19 region with bears now needing a close below Y97.81 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure. Overall a close below Y96.45 is needed to confirm a break of the 21 DMA shift focus back to 55 & 100-DMAs Y95.55-90. In addition to the Bollinger band top bulls are wary of O/B daily studies.
RES 4: Y99.23 – Rising weekly channel top
RES 3: Y99.02 – High May 28 2013
RES 2: Y98.78 – Bollinger band top
RES 1: Y98.68 – 2014 High Sept 5
LPRICE: Y98.25
SUP 1: Y98.19 – Previous hourly resistance now support
SUP 2: Y97.81 – Previous hourly resistance now support
SUP 3: Y97.25 – Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 4: Y96.78 – Low Aug 27
Initial resistance has developed on the hourlies at A$1.3854 with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure a little but the A$1.4037 level remains key with a close above needed to shift immediate focus back to A$1.4172-1.4221. Last week’s selloff has seen overall focus shift to A$1.3190-1.3370 and the first close below the 100-WMA since May adds weight to the bearish case.
RES 4: A$1.4172 – High Sept 3
RES 3: A$1.4037 – Previous 2014 low now resistance
RES 2: A$1.3901 – Hourly resistance Sept 4
RES 1: A$1.3854 – High Sept 5
LPRICE: A$1.3835
SUP 1: A$1.3788 – 2014 Low Sept 5
SUP 2: A$1.3518 – Monthly Low June 3 2013
SUP 3: A$1.3370 – Monthly Low June 3 2013
SUP 4: A$1.3318 – Low May 24 2013
