Time spent below the 21-DMA has been brief with the AUD/USD bouncing from ahead of the Bollinger band base back towards key resistance including the 55-DMA ($0.9358). Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.9374 to end bearish hopes and shift overall focus back to the 2014 high. While $0.9374 caps bears hold out hope for lower levels with a close below $0.9235 needed to confirm bearish pressure and target the 200-DMA.
RES 4: $0.9426 – High July 25
RES 3: $0.9374 – High Aug 6 & 28
RES 2: $0.9366 – Bollinger band top
RES 1: $0.9352 – High Sept 3
LPRICE: $0.9341
SUP 1: $0.9318 – Hourly support Sept 3
SUP 2: $0.9263 – Low Sept 3
SUP 3: $0.9254 – Bollinger band base
SUP 4: $0.9235 – Monthly Low Aug 21
Fresh 7 month lows continued for the NZD/USD Wednesday before finding support ahead of the Feb 26 low. The bounce from overnight lows sees initial support having developed on the hourlies at $0.8311 but bears will look for a close below $0.8281 to reconfirm bearish pressure. The $0.8407-30 region remains key resistance with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure and above the 200-DMA to hint at a bigger bounce.
RES 4: $0.8412 – 21-DMA
RES 3: $0.8407 – High Aug 28
RES 2: $0.8374 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 1: $0.8343 – Hourly resistance Sept 2
LPRICE: $0.8320
SUP 1: $0.8311 – Hourly support Sept 3
SUP 2: $0.8281 – Low Feb 26
SUP 3: $0.8243 – Low Feb 20
SUP 4: $0.8187 – Low Feb 5
The pair has started to work its way through the NZ$1.1226-1.1312 resistance region with fresh 2014 and 10 month highs Wednesday. Initial support is now noted at the previous 2014 high of NZ$1.1190 with bears now needing a close below to ease bullish pressure. Bears now look for a close below NZ$1.1101 to hint at a deeper correction with a close below the 21-DMA (NZ$1.1067) confirming and targeting the NZ$1.0824-1.0927 region
RES 4: NZ$1.1383 – High Nov 8 2013
RES 3: NZ$1.1312 – High Nov 20 2013
RES 2: NZ$1.1241 – Bollinger band top
RES 1: NZ$1.1235 – 2014 High Sept 3
LPRICE: NZ$1.1217
SUP 1: NZ$1.1190 – Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 2: NZ$1.1124 – Low Sept 2
SUP 3: NZ$1.1101 – Previous daily high now support
SUP 4: NZ$1.1050 – Hourly support Aug 20
Fresh 2014 and 17 month highs continue with the move stalling ahead of the Bollinger band top. With closes above the Bolli top a rarity follow through above this level may be limited. Initial support is noted at the previous Y97.81 hourly resistance level but bears really need a close below Y97.25 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure. Overall a close below Y96.45 is needed to shift focus back to key DMAs clustered in the Y95.49-96.15 region.
RES 4: Y99.15 – Rising weekly channel top
RES 3: Y99.02 – High May 28 2013
RES 2: Y98.19 – Bollinger band top
RES 1: Y98.13 – 2014 High Sept 3
LPRICE: Y97.90
SUP 1: Y97.81 – Previous hourly resistance now support
SUP 2: Y97.25 – Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 3: Y96.78 – Low Aug 27
SUP 4: Y96.45 – Low Aug 22
Tuesday’s bounce was completely reversed and then some on Wednesday with the EUR/AUD having pulled back from the short term daily channel top. The A$1.4260-83 region remains key with bulls needing a close above A$1.4283 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus to the A$1.4478 Aug monthly high. Immediate focus remains on the A$1.4001-37 region where key supports are noted with O/S daily studies also a concern for bears which may limit follow through
RES 4: A$1.4283 – High Aug 22
RES 3: A$1.4260 – 21-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4221 – High Aug 26
RES 1: A$1.4174 – Falling short term daily channel top
LPRICE: A$1.4071
SUP 1: A$1.4037 – 2014 Low Aug 29, Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 2: A$1.4001 – 100-WMA, Bollinger band base
SUP 3: A$1.3861 – Monthly Low July 10 2013
SUP 4: A$1.3812 – Low June 14 2013
