Last week’s failure at $0.9374 has seen the aussie close back below the 21-DMA with immediate focus having shifted to the $0.9177-0.9235 region. The only real concern for bears is the proximity of the Bollinger band base which may initially limit downside follow through. Initial resistance is now noted at the 21-DMA with a close above needed to ease bearish pressure. Overall a close above $0.9374 is needed to end bearish hopes and target 2014 highs.
RES 4: $0.9374 – High Aug 6 & 28
RES 3: $0.9362 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: $0.9318 – Low Sept 1 now resistance
RES 1: $0.9308 – 21-DMA
LPRICE: $0.9278
SUP 1: $0.9254 – Bollinger band base
SUP 2: $0.9235 – Monthly Low Aug 21
SUP 3: $0.9202 – Monthly Low May 2
SUP 4: $0.9177 – 200-DMA
Recent failures ahead of the 21-DMA have resulted in a sell-off that reconfirms bearish pressure and sees immediate focus shift to the 200-WMA with a close below last seen in Aug 2013. The Bollinger band base comes in around $0.8308 and appears to be limiting downside follow through for now. Initial resistance is noted on the hourlies at $0.8323 but bulls need a close above $0.8430 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus higher.
RES 4: $0.8418 – 21-DMA
RES 3: $0.8407 – High Aug 28
RES 2: $0.8362 – Hourly resistance Sept 2
RES 1: $0.8323 – Hourly support Sept 2 now resistance
LPRICE: $0.8316
SUP 1: $0.8281 – Low Feb 26
SUP 2: $0.8243 – Low Feb 20
SUP 3: $0.8187 – Low Feb 5
SUP 4: $0.8138 – 200-WMA
The NZ$1.1101-29 support region confirmed its significance Tuesday with the dip back to this region providing a base for a bounce back towards the 2014 highs. Despite the bounce, bears take comfort in the failure to make fresh 2014 highs combined with O/B studies looking to correct lower. In saying that, bears look for a close below NZ$1.1101 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below NZ$1.1013 to shift overall focus lower.
RES 4: NZ$1.1312 – High Nov 20 2013
RES 3: NZ$1.1226 – High Nov 29 2013
RES 2: NZ$1.1217 – Bollinger band top
RES 1: NZ$1.1191 – 2014 High Aug 29
LPRICE: NZ$1.1156
SUP 1: NZ$1.1124 – Low Sept 2
SUP 2: NZ$1.1101 – Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 3: NZ$1.1050 – Hourly support Aug 20
SUP 4: NZ$1.1013 – Hourly support Aug 19
The sequence of higher daily highs continued Tuesday with immediate bullish focus on the Y97.70-94 region where the Bollinger band top and daily trend line projection are located. Bears look for a close below Y96.78 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure whereas a close below Y96.45 is now needed to shift focus back to key DMAs clustered in the Y95.47-96.04 region. The key concerns for bulls are O/B daily studies and the proximity of the Bolli top.
RES 4: Y99.15 – Rising weekly channel top
RES 3: Y97.94 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: Y97.70 – Daily trend line projection
RES 1: Y97.59 – 2014 High Sept 2
LPRICE: Y97.50
SUP 1: Y97.25 – Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 2: Y96.78 – Low Aug 27
SUP 3: Y96.45 – Low Aug 22
SUP 4: Y95.94 – Low Aug 21
The solid bounce from ahead of recent fresh 2013 and 13 month lows combined with correcting O/S daily studies has provided bulls with some comfort and eased the previous bearish pressure a little. The A$1.4274-83 region now becomes key with bulls needing a close above A$1.4283 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus to the A$1.4478 Aug monthly high. Initial support is noted A$1.4108 with bears needing a close below to signal a false break higher.
RES 4: A$1.4341- High Aug 19
RES 3: A$1.4283 – High Aug 22
RES 2: A$1.4274 – 21-DMA
RES 1: A$1.4221 – High Aug 26
LPRICE: A$1.4150
SUP 1: A$1.4108 – Hourly support Sept 2
SUP 2: A$1.4037 – 2014 Low Aug 29
SUP 3: A$1.4001 – 100-WMA
SUP 4: A$1.3861 – Monthly Low July 10 2013
