AUD/USD did little Monday with the pair having failed to make an impact on the key $0.9374 resistance and drifting back towards the $0.9300-11 region. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.9374 to end bearish hopes and shift overall focus to the 2014 high. The Bollinger band top comes in at $0.9364 and appears to be limiting topside follow through. Bears look for a close below $0.9300 to reconfirm bearish pressure and target the 200-DMA.
RES 4: $0.9426 – High July 25
RES 3: $0.9414 – Ichimoku cloud top
RES 2: $0.9405 – Ichimoku cloud base
RES 1: $0.9374 – High Aug 6 & 28
LPRICE: $0.9330
SUP 1: $0.9311 – 21-DMA
SUP 2: $0.9300 – Low Aug 27
SUP 3: $0.9272 – Low Aug 26
SUP 4: $0.9235 – Monthly Low Aug 21
Following the bounce from 6 month lows last week the NZD/USD continues to struggle ahead of layers of resistance in the $0.8407-71 region where 21 & 200-DMAs are located. Bulls now look for a close above the $0.8431 Aug 22 high to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and ease bearish pressure whereas a close above the 200-DMA is needed to add support to the bullish case and shift immediate focus to the $0.8537-94 region. While $0.8431 caps bears target 2014 lows
RES 4: $0.8513 – 38.2% Fibonacci 0.8839-0.8311
RES 3: $0.8471 – 200-DMA
RES 2: $0.8431 – High Aug 22
RES 1: $0.8407 – High Aug 28
PRICE: $0.8376
SUP 1: $0.8323 – Hourly support Aug 26
SUP 2: $0.8311 – Monthly Low Aug 26
SUP 3: $0.8281 – Low Feb 26
SUP 4: $0.8243 – Low Feb 20
Bears are taking some comfort as it drifts back towards key support noted NZ$1.1101-29 with daily studies looking to correct from O/B levels. In saying that, bears look for a close below NZ$1.1101 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure. Bears then look for a close below NZ$1.1013 to shift overall focus back to the NZ$1.0824-93 region. While the NZ$1.1101-29 region supports, bulls will continue to target the NZ$1.1226-1.1312 region
RES 4: NZ$1.1312 – High Nov 20 2013
RES 3: NZ$1.1226 – High Nov 29 2013
RES 2: NZ$1.1207 – Bollinger band top
RES 1: NZ$1.1191 – 2014 High Aug 29
LPRICE: NZ$1.1135
SUP 1: NZ$1.1129 – Low Aug 26
SUP 2: NZ$1.1101 – Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 3: NZ$1.1050 – Hourly support Aug 20
SUP 4: NZ$1.1013 – Hourly support Aug 19
The sequence of higher daily highs continued to start the new week with immediate bullish focus on the Y97.68-73 region where the Bollinger band top and daily trend line projection are located. Bears now need to see a close below Y96.78 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure whereas a close below Y96.45 is now needed to shift focus back to key DMAs clustered in the Y95.45-95 region.
RES 4: Y99.15 – Rising weekly channel top
RES 3: Y97.73 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: Y97.68 – Daily trend line projection
RES 1: Y97.47 – 2014 High Sept 1
LPRICE: Y97.30
SUP 1: Y97.25 – Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 2: Y96.78 – Low Aug 27
SUP 3: Y96.45 – Low Aug 22
SUP 4: Y95.94 – Low Aug 21
Fresh 2014 and 13 month lows were seen Friday before the EUR/AUD bounced a little to start the new week. Bears need a close above $1.4147 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure with a close above the 21-DMA remaining needed to shift focus back to the A$1.4478 level. While A$1.4147 caps immediate focus remains on A$1.3812-61 last seen in June/July 2013. Key concerns for bears remain O/S daily studies and the proximity of the Bollinger band base.
RES 4: A$1.4341- High Aug 19
RES 3: A$1.4283 – High Aug 22, 21-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4221 – High Aug 26
RES 1: A$1.4147 – High Aug 27
LPRICE: A$1.4066
SUP 1: A$1.4037 – 2014 Low Aug 29
SUP 2: A$1.4000 – 100-WMA
SUP 3: A$1.3861 – Monthly Low July 10 2013
SUP 4: A$1.3812 – Monthly Low June 14 2013
