The Dollar is some what caught between opposing influences as data flows this week have not produced a definitive growth vibe toward the US but at the same time US data has been strong enough that theDollar has generally remained in vogue. However, given the breakneck gains in the Dollar over the last twomonths, it is possible that the Dollar has reached a high enough level that US numbers will have to improve topush the Dollar even higher. On the other hand, the Dollar can be expected to maintain a safe haven flow asforeign money continues to flow toward US Treasuries and the Dollar can also expect to see ongoing buying fromthose looking to get away from the Euro which in turn is under fresh pressure because of the Russian aggressionand the potential for more sanctions to be applied. In looking ahead to the US scheduled data this morning,Personal income and spending might only be minimally supportive of the Dollar unless they come in stronger thanexpected but the biggest potential windfall from the Data today might come from the ISM Chicago Businesssurvey which is expected to jump sharply. In conclusion, we would expect the September Dollar to respectsupport at 82.44 unless Peace suddenly breaks out in the Ukraine.
Technical Outlook: Stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels will tend to support lower pricesif support levels are broken. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day movingaverage. The daily closing price reversal up on the daily chart is somewhat positive. The close over the pivotswing is a somewhat positive setup. The next downside objective is 82.22. The market is approaching overboughtlevels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around 82.66 and 82.78, while 1st support hits today at82.38 and below there at 82.22.