AUD/USD continues to oscillate around the 21-DMA ($0.9309) with rallies stalling ahead of the $0.9344-74 resistance region. This region remains key for the Aussie with bulls needing a close above $0.9374 to confirm a break of the 100 & 55-DMAs, ending bearish hopes and shifting overall focus back to the 2014 highs. While $0.9344-74 caps bears target a break of last week’s lows that then targets the 200-DMA ($0.9174).
RES 4: $0.9374 – High Aug 6
RES 3: $0.9365 – 55-DMA
RES 2: $0.9344 – High Aug 19, 100-DMA
RES 1: $0.9330 – High Aug 26
LPRICE: $0.9313
SUP 1: $0.9272 – Low Aug 26
SUP 2: $0.9235 – Low Aug 21
SUP 3: $0.9229 – Monthly low June 3
SUP 4: $0.9202 – Monthly low May 2
Fresh 6 month lows continued for the NZD/USD with bears firmly focused on the $0.8187-0.8243 region. Layers of resistance remain $0.8351-0.8468 with bulls needing a close above the 200-DMA ($0.8468) to confirm a break of the channel top and an easing of bearish pressure, shifting immediate focus to the $0.8537 resistance level. The key concern for bears is the closes below the Bollinger band base ($0.8346).
RES 4: $0.8431 – High Aug 22
RES 3: $0.8424 – Falling daily channel top
RES 2: $0.8371 – High Aug 25
RES 1: $0.8351 – High Aug 26
LPRICE: $0.8325
SUP 1: $0.8307 – 100-WMA
SUP 2: $0.8243 – Low Feb 20
SUP 3: $0.8213 – Falling daily channel base
SUP 4: $0.8187 – Low Feb 5
Bulls remain focused on NZ$1.1223-1.1312 where the trend line projections and highs from Nov 2013 are located. Initial support is now noted in the NZ$1.1101-29 region with bears needing a close below NZ$1.1101 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure. Bears then look for a close below NZ$1.1013 to shift overall focus back to the NZ$1.0824-73 region. Daily studies are approaching O/B but the proximity of the Bolli top remains the key concern
RES 4: NZ$1.1312 – High Nov 20 2013
RES 3: NZ$1.1226 – High Nov 29 2013
RES 2: NZ$1.1223 – Trend line projection April/early June highs
RES 1: NZ$1.1186 – 2014 High Aug 26
LPRICE: NZ$1.1172
SUP 1: NZ$1.1129 – Low Aug 26
SUP 2: NZ$1.1101 – Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 3: NZ$1.1050 – Hourly support Aug 20
SUP 4: NZ$1.1013 – Hourly support Aug 19, 21-DMA
The Y96.45 support confirmed its significance Tuesday with the AUD/JPY bouncing from this level back towards the recent 2014 high. Bears continue to look for a close below Y96.45 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and a close below the 100-DMA to shift overall focus back to retests of the monthly low so far and the 200-DMA (Y94.03). While Y96.45 supports bulls initially target Y97.36-58 and overall focus on the weekly channel top at Y99.08.
RES 4: Y99.08 – Rising weekly channel top
RES 3: Y97.58 – Daily trend line projection
RES 2: Y97.36 – High June 3 2013
RES 1: Y97.12 – 2014 High Aug 25
LPRICE: Y96.80
SUP 1: Y96.45 – Low Aug 22
SUP 2: Y95.94 – Low Aug 21
SUP 3: Y95.59 – Hourly support Aug 18
SUP 4: Y95.39 – 100-DMA
EUR/AUD briefly traded above the previous initial resistance level Tuesday (A$1.4209) before heading down to fresh 2014 and 9 month lows once again with bears also taking comfort in the relatively bearish close. Bulls continue to look for a close above A$1.4283 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and a close above A$1.4406 to confirm an end to bearish hopes. While A$1.4283 caps bears initially target the Nov monthly low.
RES 4: A$1.4406 – High Aug 15
RES 3: A$1.4339- 21-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4283 – High Aug 22
RES 1: A$1.4221 – High Aug 26
LPRICE: A$1.4151
SUP 1: A$1.4122 – Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 2: A$1.4051 – Monthly Low Nov 7 2013
SUP 3: A$1.3989 – 100-WMA
SUP 4: A$1.3861 – Monthly Low July 10 2013
