AUD/USD continues to oscillate around the 21-DMA ($0.9313) with rallies stalling ahead of the $0.9344-74 resistance region. This region remains key for the Aussie this week with bulls needing a close above $0.9374 to confirm a break of the 100 & 55-DMAs, ending bearish hopes and shifting overall focus back to the 2014 highs. While $0.9344-74 caps bears target a break of last week’s lows that then targets the 200-DMA ($0.9175).
RES 4: $0.9383 – Bollinger band top
RES 3: $0.9374 – High Aug 6
RES 2: $0.9366 – 55-DMA
RES 1: $0.9344 – High Aug 19, 100-DMA
LPRICE: $0.9289
SUP 1: $0.9289 – Low Aug 25
SUP 2: $0.9235 – Low Aug 21
SUP 3: $0.9229 – Monthly low June 3
SUP 4: $0.9202 – Monthly low May 2
Fresh 6 month lows and a relatively bearish close to start the new week sees bears firmly focused on the $0.8187-0.8243 region with the falling daily channel base noted at $0.8226. Layers of resistance are noted in the $0.8371-0.8468 region with bulls now needing a close above the 200-DMA to confirm a break of the channel top and an easing of bearish pressure, shifting immediate focus to the $0.8537 resistance level.
RES 4: $0.8468 – 200-DMA
RES 3: $0.8437 – Falling daily channel top
RES 2: $0.8431 – High Aug 22
RES 1: $0.8371 – High Aug 25
LPRICE: $0.8340
SUP 1: $0.8308 – 100-WMA
SUP 2: $0.8243 – Low Feb 20
SUP 3: $0.8226 – Falling daily channel base
SUP 4: $0.8187 – Low Feb 5
AUD/NZD headed sharply higher to start the new week with fresh 2014 and 9 month lows seeing bulls initially focused on the NZ$1.1220-1.1312 region last seen in Nov 2013. Initial support has developed in the NZ$1.1101-19 region with bears needing a close below to ease bullish pressure. The rising channel base and 21-DMA come in around NZ$1.1000 with a close below needed to hint at a deeper correction and below NZ$1.0924 needed to confirm.
RES 4: NZ$1.1312 – High Nov 20 2013
RES 3: NZ$1.1226 – High Nov 29 2013
RES 2: NZ$1.1220 – Trend line projection April/early June highs
RES 1: NZ$1.1164 – High Aug 25
LPRICE: NZ$1.1140
SUP 1: NZ$1.1119 – Hourly support Aug 25
SUP 2: NZ$1.1101 – Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 3: NZ$1.1050 – Hourly support Aug 20
SUP 4: NZ$1.1013 – Hourly support Aug 19
The rally continued to start the new week before correcting lower with bears taking comfort in the relatively bearish close combined with daily studies at O/B levels. In saying that, bears need a close below Y96.45 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and a close below the 100-DMA to shift overall focus back to retests of the monthly low so far and the 200-DMA (Y94.02). While Y96.45 supports bulls initially target Y97.36-55.
RES 4: Y99.99 – High May 23 2013
RES 3: Y99.08 – Rising weekly channel top
RES 2: Y97.55 – Daily trend line projection
RES 1: Y97.36 – High June 3 2013
LPRICE: Y96.65
SUP 1: Y96.45 – Low Aug 22
SUP 2: Y95.94 – Low Aug 21
SUP 3: Y95.59 – Hourly support Aug 18
SUP 4: Y95.38 – 100-DMA
Fresh 2014 and 9 month lows were seen for the EUR/AUD again Monday with initial resistance now noted at A$1.4209. Bulls need to see a close above A$1.4283 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and a close above A$1.4406 to confirm an end to bearish hopes and initially target A$1.4478. While A$1.4283 caps bears initially target the Nov monthly low with key concerns for bears being O/S daily studies and the proximity of the Bollinger band base.
RES 4: A$1.4406 – High Aug 15
RES 3: A$1.4346- 21-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4283 – High Aug 22
RES 1: A$1.4209 – High Aug 25
LPRICE: A$1.4191
SUP 1: A$1.4149 – 2014 Low Aug 25
SUP 2: A$1.4051 – Monthly Low Nov 7 2013
SUP 3: A$1.3989 – 100-WMA
SUP 4: A$1.3861 – Monthly Low July 10 2013
