There are a number of geopolitical issues and angles that leave the Dollar in control at the start of thenew trading week. In addition to reports of mass killings inside Iraq, there are also reports that Russia rebels haveopened up a front close to the Russian border. Furthermore, Ukraine officials are suggesting that Russian forcesmasquerading as rebels have opened up a front inside the Ukraine and Ukrainian official sources are alsosuggesting that a column of military vehicles has entered its borders near a Ukraine seaport. With expectations ofnearly a 5% rise in new residential home sales from the US and a Texas manufacturing outlook also due forrelease this morning, we have to think that the Dollar will continue to win the macro-economic differential battlewith other actively traded currencies. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of August 19thfor US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 27,153 contracts, an increase of 4,013 contracts.The Commercial traders were net short 34,428 contracts, an increase of 3,397 contracts. The Non-reportabletraders were net long 7,275 contracts, a decrease of 616 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportablecombined traders held a net long position of 34,428 contracts. This represents an increase of 3,397 contracts inthe net long position held by these traders.
Technical Outlook: The market made a new contract high on the rally. Rising stochastics atoverbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close overthe 9-bar moving average. The daily closing price reversal up on the daily chart is somewhat positive. With theclose over the 1st swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position. The near-term upsideobjective is at 82.72. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels. The next area ofresistance is around 82.56 and 82.72, while 1st support hits today at 82.18 and below there at 81.96.