The Dollar has remained in the August consolidation overnight but it sits just above a potentially critical pivot point of 81.415. However, the Dollar is being pressured by a series of slack US data points and it is alsoclear that the weak data has in turn pushed back market expectations of when US rates might rise. In fact, theDollar is put under some minor pressure because of Fed comments over the weekend suggesting that it wouldnot be wise to prematurely raise interest rates and risk falling back into recession. While the trade will see anNAHB housing market index release from the US today, that report isn’t likely to take the spotlight away fromEastern Europe today. Without fresh sanctions talk or noted aggression from Russia against the Ukraine, theDollar might waffle around the recent consolidation low zone bound by 81.41 and 81.36. The Commitments ofTraders Futures and Options report as of August 12th for US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were netlong 23,140 contracts, a decrease of 592 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 31,031 contracts, adecrease of 110 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 7,891 contracts, an increase of 482contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 31,031 contracts.This represents a decrease of 110 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.
Technical Outlook: Stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels will tend to support lower pricesif support levels are broken. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-daymoving average. The close below the 1st swing support could weigh on the market. The next downside objectiveis 81.26. Short-term indicators on the defensive. Consider selling an intraday bounce. The next area of resistanceis around 81.60 and 81.76, while 1st support hits today at 81.36 and below there at 81.26.