In AUD/USD, Commerzbank notes that it has seen a rebound from its current August low at .9239 and is still heading towards the 55 day moving average at .9367.
“While capped by it we will maintain our bearish bias. We look for losses to the .9203/.9178 May low and 200 day moving average,” CB projects.
“We also find the 55 week ma in this vicinity at .9210 and the 32.8% Fibonacci retracement at .9182. These represent major break down points and we suspect that they will hold the initial test,” CB adds.
“Above the 55 day moving average at .9367 will neutralise our forecast and introduce scope to retest the .9475 late July high. Longer term failure at .9182 will trigger the start of a move to .8891, the March low,” CB argues.
In line with this view, CB runs a new limit order to sell AUD/USD at 0.9360, with a stop at 0.9450, and a target at 0.9185.
