The Dollar has some macro-economic differential head winds this morning in the face of a positive 2ndquarter UK GDP release. However, that potentially negative tilt is countervailed by reports that the ECB might bepoised to offer up fresh stimulus to countervail the drag from Russian sanctions. We also have to think that theDollar is deriving some lift from reports that Russia might have pushed about a dozen armored military vehiclesinto the Ukraine away from the aid convoy. In looking ahead, the trade will see an Empire State manufacturingsurvey that is expected to have softened and the trade will also see a PPI result that isn’t expected to provideanything significant. Therefore, the Dollar might see some minimal weakness through the data window but therest of the session could be dominated by developments from the Ukraine. Unless Putin is caught red handedsending in military vehicles, the international community might not be able to stop the incursion.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are trending lower from high levels which should accelerate amove lower on a break below the 1st swing support. The market’s close above the 9-day moving averagesuggests the short-term trend remains positive. The market could take on a defensive posture with the dailyclosing price reversal down. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The nextdownside target is now at 81.32. The next area of resistance is around 81.79 and 81.93, while 1st support hitstoday at 81.49 and below there at 81.32.