O/S daily studies may be hindering attempts to head lower with the AUD/USD having bounced from ahead of the $0.9229-39 support. Bulls need a close above $0.9292 to confirm an easing bearish pressure and a close above $0.9374 to confirm a break of 21 & 55-DMAs and end bearish hopes. This then sees focus shift back to the $0.9477-0.9505 region. While $0.9292 caps, immediate bearish focus remains on the $0.9179-0.9202 region where the 200-DMA is noted
RES 4: $0.9425 – High July 25
RES 3: $0.9374 – High Aug 6
RES 2: $0.9349 – 21-DMA
RES 1: $0.9292 – Low Aug 6 now resistance
LPRICE: $0.9264
SUP 1: $0.9239 – Low Aug 8
SUP 2: $0.9229 – Monthly low June 3
SUP 3: $0.9202 – Monthly low May 2
SUP 4: $0.9179 – 200-DMA
Following on from the first close below the 200-DMA since early Feb the NZD/USD made fresh 2 month lows on Tuesday before bouncing a little from ahead of June monthly lows. The $0.8496-0.8537 region remains key resistance for the pair with bulls needing a close above $0.8537 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and above $0.8649 to end bearish hopes, confirm a break of key DMAs and shift overall focus back to 2014 highs.
RES 4: $0.8537 – High Aug 1
RES 3: $0.8496 – Low Aug 4 now resistance
RES 2: $0.8475 – High Aug 11
RES 1: $0.8442 – Hourly resistance Aug 12
LPRICE: $0.8434
SUP 1: $0.8408 – Low Aug 12
SUP 2: $0.8402 – Monthly Low June 4
SUP 3: $0.8365 – Bollinger band base
SUP 4: $0.8342 – Monthly Low Mar 3
The correction lower from 2014 highs has again found support and bounced from ahead of the NZ$1.0924 low from Aug 1 with the 21-DMA noted just below (NZ$1.0915). Bears need a close below to ease bullish pressure and shift immediate focus to the key DMAs noted in the NZ$1.0831-1.0858 region. The bounce and close above Friday’s high has eased bearish pressure with bulls now needing fresh 2014 highs to reconfirm bullish pressure.
RES 4: NZ$1.1110 – Bollinger band top
RES 3: NZ$1.1072 – High Dec 6 2013
RES 2: NZ$1.1055 – 2014 high Aug 6
RES 1: NZ$1.1012 – High Aug 12
LPRICE: NZ$1.0990
SUP 1: NZ$1.0969 – High Aug 8 now support
SUP 2: NZ$1.0924 – Low Aug 1
SUP 3: NZ$1.0846 – 200-DMA
SUP 4: NZ$1.0824 – Low July 23
Following Friday’s sharp bounce from just short of the 200-DMA the AUD/JPY is consolidating below initial resistance. Bears look for a close below Y94.53 to reconfirm bearish focus and add weight to the bearish case. Bulls need a close above Y94.91 to ease bearish pressure and above Y95.85 to end bearish hopes and target 2014 highs. Worth noting the last close below the 200-DMA was mid-March with a close below to add extra weight to the bearish case.
RES 4: Y95.85 – High Aug 5
RES 3: Y95.57 – High Aug 6
RES 2: Y95.13 – Low Aug 6 now resistance
RES 1: Y94.91 – Hourly resistance Aug 7
LPRICE: Y94.80
SUP 1: Y94.53 – Low Aug 11
SUP 2: Y93.89 – 200-DMA
SUP 3: Y93.70 – Low May 29
SUP 4: Y93.12 – 55-WMA
EUR/AUD remained capped at the 55-DMA for the third day before dipping back towards the 21-DMA. The close below the A$1.4430 support provides bears with breathing room but they now look for a close below the 21-DMA to add weight to the bearish case and see overall focus shift to retests of the 2014 low. Bulls need a close above A$1.4478 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift focus to A$1.4604-19 with the 100-DMA noted at A$1.4619.
RES 4: A$1.4604 – Monthly High July 3
RES 3: A$1.4527 – Ichimoku cloud base
RES 2: A$1.4478 – High Aug 8
RES 1: A$1.4465 – 55-DMA
LPRICE: A$1.4410
SUP 1: A$1.4377 – 21-DMA
SUP 2: A$1.4265 – Low July 25
SUP 3: A$1.4241 – Bollinger band base
SUP 4: A$1.4209 – 2014 Low July 24
