AUD/USD traded at fresh 2 month lows to end the week before bouncing a little, only to remain capped ahead of initial resistance. Bulls now need a close above $0.9292 to ease bearish pressure and a close above $0.9374 to confirm a break of 21 & 55-DMAs and end bearish hopes. This would then see focus shift back to the $0.9477-0.9505 region. While $0.9292 caps immediate bearish focus remains on the $0.9180-0.9202 region where the 200-DMA is noted.
RES 4: $0.9425 – High July 25
RES 3: $0.9374 – High Aug 6
RES 2: $0.9361 – 21-DMA
RES 1: $0.9292 – Low Aug 6 now resistance
LPRICE: $0.9274
SUP 1: $0.9239 – Low Aug 8
SUP 2: $0.9229 – Monthly low June 3
SUP 3: $0.9202 – Monthly low May 2
SUP 4: $0.9180 – 200-DMA
Initial resistance at $0.8496 confirmed its significance to end the week with the NZD/USD remaining capped ahead of this level on Friday. In saying that, bulls continue to look for a close above $0.8537 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and above $0.8649 to end bearish hopes, confirm a break of key DMAs and shift overall focus back to 2014 highs. Bears need to see a close below $0.8402 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and add weight to target 2014 lows.
RES 4: $0.8649 – Low July 18 now resistance
RES 3: $0.8589 – High July 25
RES 2: $0.8537 – High Aug 1
RES 1: $0.8496 – Low Aug 4 now resistance
LPRICE: $0.8456
SUP 1: $0.8422 – Low Aug 6
SUP 2: $0.8402 – Monthly Low June 4
SUP 3: $0.8369 – Bollinger band base
SUP 4: $0.8342 – Monthly Low Mar 3
The correction lower last week saw the AUD/NZD find support ahead of the NZ$1.0924 low from Aug 1. Bears need to see a close below this level to end bullish hopes and shift immediate focus to the key DMAs noted in the NZ$1.0826-1.0885 region. Overall bears need a close below the 100-DMA to end bullish hopes and see the 2014 lows targeted once more. Bulls need a close above Friday’s high to ease bearish pressure and fresh 2014 highs to regain control.
RES 4: NZ$1.1072 – High Dec 6 2013
RES 3: NZ$1.1055 – 2014 high Aug 6
RES 2: NZ$1.1012 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 1: NZ$1.0969 – High Aug 8
LPRICE: NZ$1.0952
SUP 1: NZ$1.0924 – Low Aug 1
SUP 2: NZ$1.0851 – 200-DMA
SUP 3: NZ$1.0826 – 100-DMA
SUP 4: NZ$1.0767 – Low July 18
Thursday’s sharp sell-off was followed up with another sharp fall Friday that found support ahead of the 200-DMA before bouncing to close little changed on the day. The pair has not closed below the 200-DMA since mid-March with bears looking for a close below to add weight to the bearish case. Bulls need a close above Y94.91 to ease bearish pressure and above Y95.85 to end bearish hopes and target 2014 highs.
RES 4: Y95.85 – High Aug 5
RES 3: Y95.57 – High Aug 6
RES 2: Y95.13 – Low Aug 6 now resistance
RES 1: Y94.91 – Hourly resistance Aug 7
LPRICE: Y94.51
SUP 1: Y93.88 – 200-DMA
SUP 2: Y93.70 – Low May 29
SUP 3: Y93.12 – 55-WMA
SUP 4: Y93.02 – Monthly low May 21
Friday’s rally extended gains above the falling daily channel base & 21-DMA but remained capped at the 55-DMA on the first attempt. Bulls look for a close above the 55-DMA to confirm an end to bearish hopes and shift immediate focus to the A$1.4604-33 region where the 100-DMA is located. A close above the 55-DMA was last seen in mid-March with a close above adding support to the bullish case.
RES 4: A$1.4633 – 100-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4604 – Monthly High July 3
RES 2: A$1.4516 – Ichimoku cloud base
RES 1: A$1.4477 – 55-DMA
LPRICE: A$1.4454
SUP 1: A$1.4383 – 21-DMA
SUP 2: A$1.4302 – Low Aug 7
SUP 3: A$1.4265 – Low July 25
SUP 4: A$1.4209 – 2014 Low July 24
