Aussie bounced Tuesday, spiking above 55 & 21-DMAs and closing above the 100-DMA. Bears will be concerned at the bounce when combined with O/S daily studies looking to correct but bulls need to see a close above the 21-DMA to end bearish hopes, shifting immediate focus to the $0.9425 July 25 high and overall focus back to the 2014 high. Bears now need a close below $0.9239 to provide some breathing room and below $0.9275 to reconfirm bearish pressure
RES 4: $0.9477 – High July 24
RES 3: $0.9453 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: $0.9425 – High July 25
RES 1: $0.9374 – 21-DMA
LPRICE: $0.9347
SUP 1: $0.9239 – Hourly support Aug 6
SUP 2: $0.9275 – Low Aug 1
SUP 3: $0.9229 – Monthly low June 3
SUP 4: $0.9202 – Monthly low May 2
NZD/USD managed another dip below the 200-DMA before bouncing sharply from just short of June monthly lows. Bears continue to look for a close below the 200-DMA to add weight to the bearish case and the lack of downside follow through combined with O/S daily studies looking to correct is of some concern. In saying that, bulls still need to see a close above $0.8537 to shift focus back to key moving averages $0.8626-0.8633.
RES 4: $0.8649 – Low July 18 now resistance
RES 3: $0.8589 – High July 25
RES 2: $0.8537 – High Aug 1
RES 1: $0.8496 – Low Aug 4 now resistance
LPRICE: $0.8473
SUP 1: $0.8402 – Monthly Low June 4
SUP 2: $0.8342 – Monthly Low Mar 3
SUP 3: $0.8243 – Low Feb 20
SUP 4: $0.8051 – 2014 Low Feb 4
The recovery from last week’s low gathered momentum on Wednesday with fresh 2014 and 9 month highs as a result. Bullish focus has been reconfirmed with the NZ$1.1150-1.1225 region currently targeted while NZ$1.0982 supports. Bears need a close below $1.0982 to ease bullish pressure and below NZ$1.0924 to shift focus to layers of support clustered in the NZ$1.0819-58 region where key moving averages are located.
RES 4: NZ$1.1128 – Bollinger band top
RES 3: NZ$1.1072 – High Dec 6 2013
RES 2: NZ$1.1055 – 2014 high Aug 6
RES 1: NZ$1.1043 – Weekly Bollinger band top
LPRICE: NZ$1.1031
SUP 1: NZ$1.0982 – Low Aug 6
SUP 2: NZ$1.0965 – High Aug 4 now support
SUP 3: NZ$1.0924 – Low Aug 1
SUP 4: NZ$1.0860 – 200-DMA
AUD/JPY is looking a little heavy again following the dip below the 100-DMA (Y95.26) on Wednesday although the lack of follow through provides bulls with some hope. In saying that, bulls now need a close above Tuesday’s Y95.85 high to regain control and shift overall focus back to the Y96.18-51 region. While Y95.85 caps bears now favour a break lower that targets the July monthly low with a close below the 100-DMA needed to add weight to the case
RES 4: Y96.59 – Weekly Bollinger band top
RES 3: Y96.51 – 2014 high July 1
RES 2: Y96.18 – High July 24
RES 1: Y95.85 – High Aug 5
LPRICE: Y95.45
SUP 1: Y95.30 – Low Aug 1 & 5
SUP 2: Y95.23 – 100-DMA
SUP 3: Y94.93 – Low July 21
SUP 4: Y94.39 – Monthly Low July 18
After having flirted with the 21-DMA and channel top the EUR/AUD has largely remain capped by the 21-DMA the past two days with the result being a move back towards the 2014 lows. The move lower reconfirms bearish pressure with immediate focus on 2014 lows and overall focus on the A$1.4032-51 region where the falling channel base and Nov 2013 lows are located. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above the 55-DMA to target A$1.4601-48.
RES 4: A$1.4447 – High Aug 1
RES 3: A$1.4397 – High Aug 1
RES 2: A$1.4388 – 21-DMA
RES 1: A$1.4321 – Alternating daily support/resistance
LPRICE: A$1.4304
SUP 1: A$1.4265 – Low July 25
SUP 2: A$1.4229 – Bollinger band base
SUP 3: A$1.4209 – 2014 Low July 24
SUP 4: A$1.4051 – Monthly Low Nov 7 2013
