AUD/USD marginally traded above the previous initial resistance before heading sharply lower and managing a relatively bearish close. Tuesday’s move provides bears with some breathing room with overall focus remaining on the $0.9183-0.9229 region. Bulls now need to see a close above the 21-DMA to confirm a break of the 100-DMA ($0.9329), 55-DMA ($0.9360), easing bearish pressure and shifting immediate focus to the $0.9425 July 25 high.
RES 4: $0.9456 – Bollinger band top
RES 3: $0.9425 – High July 25
RES 2: $0.9375 – Hourly support July 30 now resistance, 21-DMA
RES 1: $0.9343 – High Aug 5
LPRICE: $0.9302
SUP 1: $0.9275 – Low Aug 1
SUP 2: $0.9229 – Monthly low June 3
SUP 3: $0.9202 – Monthly low May 2
SUP 4: $0.9183 – 200-DMA
NZD/USD remained capped ahead of the $0.8537 resistance level Tuesday before heading lower to trade at fresh 3 month lows, dipping below the 200-DMA in the process. The Kiwi last closed below the 200-DMA back in late Jan with bears needing a close below to add weight to the bearish case. Immediate focus then shifts to June monthly lows with overall focus shifting to the 2014 lows at $0.8051 from Feb 4.
RES 4: $0.8599 – Hourly resistance July 24
RES 3: $0.8560 – High July 28
RES 2: $0.8537 – High Aug 1
RES 1: $0.8496 – Low Aug 4 now resistance
LPRICE: $0.8471
SUP 1: $0.8458 – 200-DMA
SUP 2: $0.8452 – Low Aug 5
SUP 3: $0.8412 – Monthly Low June 4
SUP 4: $0.8343 – Monthly Low Mar 3
The pullback appears to have come to an end with the break and close above NZ$1.0965 seeing immediate focus return to the NZ$1.1033-72 region. Bears now need a close below NZ$1.0924 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and see focus shift to the NZ$1.0814-58 region where 21, 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are located. The key concern for bulls at present are O/B daily studies but higher levels remain favoured while NZ$1.0924 supports
RES 4: NZ$1.1108 – Bollinger band top
RES 3: NZ$1.1072 – High Dec 6 2013
RES 2: NZ$1.1048 – 2014 high July 29
RES 1: NZ$1.1033 – Weekly Bollinger band top
LPRICE: NZ$1.0991
SUP 1: NZ$1.0965 – High Aug 4 now resistance
SUP 2: NZ$1.0924 – Low Aug 1
SUP 3: NZ$1.0860 – 200-DMA
SUP 4: NZ$1.0838 – 55-DMA
AUD/JPY continues to bounce from dips below the 21-DMA (Y95.48) with 21, 55 & 100-DMAs noted in the Y95.23-48 region. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and see immediate focus shift to the Y94.39-93 support region where July lows are noted. In saying that bulls need a close above Y96.21 to confirm bullish pressure and target fresh 2014 highs.
RES 4: Y96.61 – Weekly Bollinger band top
RES 3: Y96.51 – 2014 high July 1
RES 2: Y96.18 – High July 24
RES 1: Y95.80 – High Aug 1
LPRICE: Y95.40
SUP 1: Y95.30 – Low Aug 1 & 5
SUP 2: Y95.23 – 100-DMA
SUP 3: Y94.93 – Low July 21
SUP 4: Y94.39 – Monthly Low July 18
Time spent above the 21-DMA (A$1.4403) was brief with the EUR/AUD also failing to close above the falling daily channel top (A$1.4415) Friday and Monday. Bulls need a close above Friday’s A$1.4447 high to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and falling channel top and shift overall focus back to the $1.4602 July monthly highs. The A$1.4321 support is now key with bears needing a close below to reconfirm bearish pressure and target the 2014 low.
RES 4: A$1.4498 – 55-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4466 – Previous daily channel base
RES 2: A$1.4447 – High Aug 1
RES 1: A$1.4397 – High Aug 1
LPRICE: A$1.4372
SUP 1: A$1.4321 – High July 25 now support
SUP 2: A$1.4265 – Low July 25
SUP 3: A$1.4237 – Bollinger band base
SUP 4: A$1.4209 – 2014 Low July 24
