AUD/USD is looking a little heavy following last week’s spike which lacked follow through. The $0.9322-65 region remains key support this week with bears needing a close below $0.9322 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and rising daily channel base off 2014 lows. This would end bullish hopes and see focus shift back to the $0.9198-0.9268 region where 100 & 200-DMA’s are located. Bulls need a close above $0.9456 to retain control and target fresh 2014 highs.
RES 4: $0.9543 – Monthly High Nov 6 2013
RES 3: $0.9505 – 2014 High July 1
RES 2: $0.9468 – Hourly resistance July 2
RES 1: $0.9456 – High July 10
LPRICE: $0.9385
SUP 1: $0.9361 – Low July 10
SUP 2: $0.9344 – 55-DMA
SUP 3: $0.9322 – Low June 18
SUP 4: $0.9268 – 100-DMA
NZD/USD traded at marginal fresh 2014 highs on Thursday before remaining capped just short of this level Friday but daily and weekly Bollinger bands may limit topside follow through above $0.8845 for now. In saying that, bears need a close below $0.8775 to ease the bullish pressure and below $0.8714 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA, ending bullish hopes and seeing immediate focus shift to the $0.8593-0.8663 region.
RES 4: $0.8920 – 1.382 projection of $0.8413-0.8779
RES 3: $0.8845 – Weekly Bollinger band top
RES 2: $0.8840 – 2011 High 1 Aug 2011
RES 1: $0.8835 – 2014 High July 10
LPRICE: $0.8817
SUP 1: $0.8775 – Hourly support Low July 8
SUP 2: $0.8714 – Low July 7
SUP 3: $0.8663 – Low June 25
SUP 4: $0.8642 – Low June 17
The move lower Thursday saw the AUD/NZD break and close below the rising daily channel base off the 2014 low with Friday’s inside day seeing the pair consolidate below the channel base, adding weight to the bearish case. Layers of resistance remain in the NZ$1.0733-1.0837 region with bulls needing a close above NZ$1.0733 to ease bearish pressure. Bears currently remain focused on the 2014 lows with a close above NZ$1.0837 needed to end bearish hopes
RES 4: NZ$1.0784 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 3: NZ$1.0754 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 2: NZ$1.0733 – High July 7
RES 1: NZ$1.0672 – High July 11
LPRICE: NZ$1.0647
SUP 1: NZ$1.0623 – Low July 10
SUP 2: NZ$1.0564 – Falling daily channel base
SUP 3: NZ$1.0536 – Monthly Low Mar 12
SUP 4: NZ$1.0492 – 2014 Low Jan 24
AUD/JPY broke to the downside Thursday before finding support ahead of the 100-DMA. Initial resistance is now noted at the previous Y95.38 support with this level having capped the bounce from lows to end the week. Bulls now need a close above Y95.38 to ease bearish pressure and a close above Y95.96 to end bearish hopes. Bears favour a break lower that tests the Y93.68-74 region while Y95.96 caps.
RES 4: Y96.51 – 2014 High Apr 4
RES 3: Y96.18 – Hourly resistance July 2
RES 2: Y95.96 – High July 10
RES 1: Y95.38 – Previous daily support now resistance
LPRICE: Y95.07
SUP 1: Y94.70 – Low July 10
SUP 2: Y94.66 – 100-DMA
SUP 3: Y94.58 – Ichimoku cloud top
SUP 4: Y94.26 – Low June 2
EUR/AUD continued to chop around the 21-DMA (A$1.4485) but failed to close below at any stage last week which provides bulls with a glimmer of hope. Bears need to see a close below last week’s A$1.4430 low from last week to assert dominance and target fresh 2014 lows. While A$1.4430 supports bulls will target the A$1.4602-31 region where the short term channel top and 55-DMA are located with a close above shifting focus to the A$1.4821-80 region.
RES 4: A$1.4749 – High June 2
RES 3: A$1.4639 – 55-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4602 – High July 3
RES 1: A$1.4556 – Bollinger band top
LPRICE: A$1.4501
SUP 1: A$1.4430 – Low July 10
SUP 2: A$1.4399 – Low July 1
SUP 3: A$1.4359 – 2014 Low June 12
SUP 4: A$1.4318 – Low Nov 20 2013
