The main question here is whether we have potentially seen the right shoulder low of a broad inverted H & S bottoming pattern which unfolded in the weekly chart as of the March 2012 low (left shoulder) at 4.0859.
That said we are now watching the key-T-junction at 4.1112 (minor 76.4 %) very carefully as this is where a countertrend decline would form a higher (2nd wave) low.
On the upside and in order to receive first hints that a sustainable low is in place it would take a break above daily trend line resistance at 4.1704 and a break above the last intra-day high at 4.1753.
The final confirmation that a minimum rally to 4.3049/98 (int. 76.4 %/pivot) is on its way would however only be delivered via breaks above 4.2101/31 (76.4 % on lower scale/daily trend).
JPM