• The FOMC minutes have proved important in bridging the gap between what the dovish Fed leadership are thinking, and the evolving view among other FOMC members.
• 10y yields have gone up on ten consecutive FOMC minutes release days. This strong pattern for higher bond yields on FOMC minutes release days, occurs after FOMC’s Economic projections and press conferences, or absent these events
• The USD Trade-weighted index versus major currencies, has been up on 11 of the last 13 FOMC minutes release days, suggesting the bearish bias in US longer-dated yields has largely translated to a stronger USD.
• A clear evolution to the hawkish side among FOMC ‘rank and file’ is more likely to be evident in the July FOMC meeting minutes, assuming another strong payrolls report next month. As important as these minutes are they are about to get a good deal more interesting in the wake of the next one or two meetings.
Read the full report: FX Daily