AUD/USD managed a spike above the 21-DMA Tuesday before closing marginally below. The bounce from the 55-DMA last week has seen the bearish pressure ease a little with bulls now looking for a close above the $0.9430 resistance to end bearish hopes and shift immediate focus to the 2014 high. Bears now need to see the $0.9430 level cap and a subsequent break below the $0.9322 support to see immediate focus shift to the $0.9198-0.9256 region.
RES 4: $0.9543 – Monthly High Nov 6 2013
RES 3: $0.9505 – 2014 High July 1
RES 2: $0.9468 – Hourly resistance July 2
RES 1: $0.9430 – Hourly support July 3 now resistance
LPRICE: $0.9399
SUP 1: $0.9365 – Low July 8
SUP 2: $0.9337 – 55-DMA
SUP 3: $0.9322 – Low June 18
SUP 4: $0.9256 – 100-DMA
The bounce from ahead of the 21-DMA Monday gathered momentum on Tuesday with the kiwi trading at fresh 2014 highs. Bullish focus now returns to the $0.8840-0.8920 region with bears needing a close below $0.8714 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and see immediate focus shift to the $0.8583-0.8663 region. The daily Slow Stochastic study remains at O/B levels but while $0.8714 supports bulls retain control.
RES 4: $0.8920 – 1.382 projection of $0.8413-0.8779
RES 3: $0.8849 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: $0.8840 – 2011 High 1 Aug 2011
RES 1: $0.8805 – 2014 High July 8
LPRICE: $0.8784
SUP 1: $0.8714 – Low July 7, 21-DMA
SUP 2: $0.8663 – Low June 25
SUP 3: $0.8647 – 38.2% Fibonacci 0.8413-0.8793
SUP 4: $0.8642 – Low June 17
The correction lower from ahead of the 55-DMA and falling daily channel top sees overall focus having shifted to retests of the 2014 low with bears dominating. Initial resistance remains at Friday’s high. Layers of resistance are noted NZ$1.0754-1.0837 with bulls needing a close above NZ$1.0837 to shift overall focus back to the June monthly highs and immediate focus to the 200-DMA. For now bears continue to initially target the May monthly low.
RES 4: NZ$1.0913 – 200-DMA
RES 3: NZ$1.0837 – High July 2
RES 2: NZ$1.0784 – Alternating hourly support/resistance, 100-DMA
RES 1: NZ$1.0754 – Previous hourly support now resistance
LPRICE: NZ$1.0701
SUP 1: NZ$1.0648 – Monthly Low May 6
SUP 2: NZ$1.0642 – Low Mar 27
SUP 3: NZ$1.0536 – Monthly Low Mar 12
SUP 4: NZ$1.0492 – 2014 Low Jan 24
AUD/JPY continues to trade sideways with the Y95.16 & Y95.86 levels seen as key this week. Bears favour a break of the Y95.16 support while the 21-DMA caps with immediate focus then shifting to the Y94.26-54 region. Bulls need to see a close above Y95.86 to confirm dominance and shift immediate focus back to the 2014 high. A concern to bears is the 21 day lower Bollinger band (Y95.28) with closes below a rarity.
RES 4: Y96.51 – 2014 High Apr 4
RES 3: Y96.18 – Hourly resistance July 2
RES 2: Y95.86 – Low July 2 now resistance
RES 1: Y95.68 – Hourly resistance July 3
LPRICE: Y95.46
SUP 1: Y95.23 – 55-DMA
SUP 2: Y95.16 – Low June 30
SUP 3: Y94.57 – 100-DMA
SUP 4: Y94.26 – Low June 2
The failure to make headway above A$1.4600 last week has seen the EUR/AUD trading heavy with it dipping back below the 21-DMA on Tuesday and causing some concern for bulls. Bears now need to see a close below A$1.4450 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure with immediate focus then shifting to the 2014 and June monthly low. Bulls need a close above A$1.4602 to confirm bullish dominance and see immediate focus shift to the 55-DMA
RES 4: A$1.4852 – 100-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4749 – High June 2
RES 2: A$1.4658 – 55-DMA
RES 1: A$1.4602 – High July 3
LPRICE: A$1.4477
SUP 1: A$1.4450 – Low July 8
SUP 2: A$1.4399 – Low July 1
SUP 3: A$1.4359 – 2014 Low June 12
SUP 4: A$1.4318 – Low Nov 20 2013
