Wednesday’s correction gathered momentum with the bearish close confirming a break of the 21-DMA and rising daily channel base with overall focus now having shift back to the key $0.9198-0.9233 region. Immediate focus is now on the $0.9322 support with a close below adding weight to the bearish case. Layers of resistance are now noted with bulls needing a close above $0.9384 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.9430 to shift focus back to 2014 highs.
RES 4: $0.9505 – 2014 High July 1
RES 3: $0.9468 – Hourly resistance July 2
RES 2: $0.9430 – Hourly support July 3 now resistance
RES 1: $0.9384 – Hourly resistance July 3
LPRICE: $0.9348
SUP 1: $0.9336 – 55-DMA
SUP 2: $0.9322 – Low June 18
SUP 3: $0.9246 – 100-DMA
SUP 4: $0.9233 – Monthly Low June 3
NZD/USD continues to struggle ahead of the 2014 high set last week and combined with a falling Bollinger band top and an O/B Slow Stochastic study could be hinting at a correction. In saying that, bears now need to see a close below $0.8717 to confirm a break of the channel that supported Wednesday, easing bullish pressure and seeing the immediate focus shift to the $0.8641-63 region. While $0.8717 supports bulls target $0.8840-0.8920.
RES 4: $0.8920 – 1.382 projection of $0.8413-0.8779
RES 3: $0.8840 – 2011 High 1 Aug 2011
RES 2: $0.8793 – 2014 High June 27
RES 1: $0.8773 – High July 3
LPRICE: $0.8750
SUP 1: $0.8717 – Low July 3
SUP 2: $0.8674 – 21-DMA
SUP 3: $0.8663 – Low June 25
SUP 4: $0.8647 – 38.2% Fibonacci 0.8413-0.8793
The correction lower from ahead of the 55-DMA and falling daily channel top continued Thursday with overall focus having shifted to retests of the 2014 low. Immediate focus has shifted to the NZ$1.0642-48 region with bulls now needing a close above $1.0754 to ease bearish pressure and a close above resistance clustered around NZ$1.0834 to end bearish hopes and shift overall focus back to the June monthly high.s
RES 4: NZ$1.0834 – 55-DMA
RES 3: NZ$1.0784 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 2: NZ$1.0754 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 1: NZ$1.0708 – Hourly resistance July 3
LPRICE: NZ$1.0680
SUP 1: NZ$1.0648 – Monthly Low May 6
SUP 2: NZ$1.0642 – Low Mar 27, Bollinger band base
SUP 3: NZ$1.0536 – Monthly Low Mar 12
SUP 4: NZ$1.0492 – 2014 Low Jan 24
The pullback from ahead of 2014 highs continued on Thursday with the close below the 21-DMA (Y95.80) adding weight to the bearish case and bears initially targeting the Y95.16 low. Bulls now need to see a close above the Y96.18 level to shift focus back to the 2014 highs. While Y96.18 caps bears look for a break of the Y95.16 support to see immediate focus shift lower to the Y94.29-47 region.
RES 4: Y96.51 – 2014 High Apr 4
RES 3: Y96.18 – Hourly resistance July 2
RES 2: Y95.86 – Low July 2 now resistance
RES 1: Y95.68 – Hourly resistance July 3
LPRICE: Y95.48
SUP 1: Y95.24 – 55-DMA
SUP 2: Y95.16 – Low June 30
SUP 3: Y94.65 – Ichimoku cloud top
SUP 4: Y94.47 – 100-DMA
After having remained capped ahead of the A$1.4552 resistance level the EUR/AUD headed higher on Thursday with the close above A$1.4552 confirming a break of the 21-DMA & falling daily trend line shifting immediate focus to the 55-DMA. Bulls now look for a close above the 55-DMA to add support to the bullish case for a continuation higher that targets the 100 & 200-DMA’s . Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to shift focus back to 2014 lows.
RES 4: A$1.4879 – 200-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4865 – 100-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4749 – High June 2
RES 1: A$1.4673 – 55-DMA
LPRICE: A$1.4560
SUP 1: A$1.4482 – 21-DMA
SUP 2: A$1.4399 – Low July 1
SUP 3: A$1.4359 – 2014 Low June 12
SUP 4: A$1.4318 – Low Nov 20 2013
