AUD/USD was unable to better Tuesday’s 2014 highs with the sharp correction lower and relatively bearish close Wednesday of some concern to bulls. Layers of support are noted in the $0.9326-92 region with bears needing a close below $0.9388 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and rising channel base. Overall bears continue to look for a close below the $0.9326 June 18 low to end bullish hopes with focus shifting to the key $0.9198-0.9242 region.
RES 4: $0.9549 – High Nov 6
RES 3: $0.9544 – Rising daily channel top
RES 2: $0.9505 – 2014 High July 1
RES 1: $0.9468 – Hourly resistance July 2
LPRICE: $0.9433
SUP 1: $0.9392 – 21-DMA, Rising daily channel base
SUP 2: $0.9388 – Low June 30
SUP 3: $0.9355 – Low June 25
SUP 4: $0.9335 – 55-DMA
NZD/USD continues to struggle ahead of the 2014 high set last week and combined with a flattening Bollinger band top and an O/B Slow Stochastic study could be hinting at a correction. In saying that, bears need to see a close below $0.8727 to confirm a break of the channel that supported Wednesday, easing bullish pressure and seeing the immediate focus shift to the $0.8641-63 region. While $0.8728-50 supports bulls target $0.8840-0.8920.
RES 4: $0.8920 – 1.382 projection of $0.8413-0.8779
RES 3: $0.8877 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: $0.8840 – 2011 High 1 Aug 2011
RES 1: $0.8793 – 2014 High June 27
LPRICE: $0.8774
SUP 1: $0.8750 – Rising daily channel base
SUP 2: $0.8727 – Low June 30
SUP 3: $0.8663 – Low June 25
SUP 4: $0.8658 – 21-DMA
The 55-DMA capped Wednesday with the resulting move lower seeing the AUD/NZD close back below the alternating NZ$1.0784 support/resistance level, easing the recent bullish pressure in the process. The topside failure has been followed up with a relatively bearish close that now sees immediate focus return to the June monthly low and overall focus having returned to the 2014 low. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to regain control.
RES 4: NZ$1.0911 – Previous daily support now resistance
RES 3: NZ$1.0859 – 21-DMA
RES 2: NZ$1.0839 – 55-DMA
RES 1: NZ$1.0784 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
LPRICE: NZ$1.0757
SUP 1: NZ$1.0734 – Low July 1
SUP 2: NZ$1.0708 – Monthly Low June 27
SUP 3: NZ$1.0652 – Bollinger band base
SUP 4: NZ$1.0648 – Low May 6
Bullish pressure has eased a little following the failure to better the 2014 high. The resulting pullback sees immediate focus return to the alternating support/resistance level noted at Y95.86 with the 21-DMA noted just below. Bears now look for a close below the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish pressure whereas a close below Y95.16 is needed to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift immediate focus to the Y94.29-43 region.
RES 4: Y99.06 – High May 28 2013
RES 3: Y98.16 – High May 29 2013
RES 2: Y97.36 – High June 3 & 4 2013
RES 1: Y96.51 – 2014 High Apr 4, Daily trend line projection
LPRICE: Y96.05
SUP 1: Y95.86 – Hourly support July 1
SUP 2: Y95.78 – 21-DMA
SUP 3: Y95.16 – Low June 30
SUP 4: Y94.43 – 100-DMA
Bearish pressure has eased a little following the bounce from ahead of 2014 lows but the A$1.4552 level remains key to overall direction. Bulls look for a close above to confirm a break of the falling daily trend line and 21-DMA with immediate focus then shifting to the A$1.4673-1.4749 region. While the A$1.4552 level caps bears will initially target 2014 lows with a close below targeting the A$1.4051 Nov 2013 monthly low.
RES 4: A$1.4749 – High June 2
RES 3: A$1.4673 – 55-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4552 – High June 5
RES 1: A$1.4488 – 21-DMA
LPRICE: A$1.4465
SUP 1: A$1.4399 – Low July 1
SUP 2: A$1.4359 – 2014 Low June 12, Bollinger band base
SUP 3: A$1.4318 – Low Nov 20 2013
SUP 4: A$1.4144 – Low Nov 8 2013
