Following the negative triangle breakout early June the market has now reached critical Fib.-support at 1.2138 (minor 76.4 %) which can be seen as the decisive T-junction to determine the intermediate trend.
A decisive break below (i.e. below 1.2122 = pivot) would re-open the downside for another test of the main support zone between 1.2000 (SNB floor) and 1.1974 (pivot).
Only a break below the latter would imply that the dam is broken which would then give room to trade all the way down towards 1.1769 (Fib.-projection) and to the 50 % retracement on big scale at 1.1359 at a later stage.
On the upside it would now take two consecutive higher hourly closes of the lagging line above the Ichimoku-cloud (currently at 1.2162) to ease the down-pressure, but only a break above 1.2204 (weekly trend) and above daily trend line resistances at 1.2213/28 would change the negative picture.
JPM