AUD/USD dipped below the previous $0.9404 support before bounce sharply from ahead of the 21-DMA and rising daily channel base off June monthly lows. The bounce keeps bullish hopes of fresh 2014 highs alive with a close at fresh highs seeing immediate focus shift to the $0.9549-0.9622 region. Bears continue to look for a close below $0.9322 to confirm a break of the channel base, 21 & 55-DMA’s and see immediate focus shift to the $0.9197-0.9233 region.
RES 4: $0.9622 – High Oct 28 2013
RES 3: $0.9549 – High Nov 6
RES 2: $0.9461 – 2014 high Apr 10
RES 1: $0.9445 – High June 23
LPRICE: $0.9427
SUP 1: $0.9388 – Low June 30
SUP 2: $0.9372 – 21-DMA
SUP 3: $0.9322 – Low June 18
SUP 4: $0.9233 – Low June 3
The pullback from ahead of the 2014 highs to start the new week combined with O/B daily studies that are looking to correct could be hinting at a correction but the $0.8727 support remains key with the pair having bounced from this level on Monday. A close below $0.8727 is needed to ease bullish pressure whereas a close below the $0.8642 support is needed to hint at a deeper correction. While $0.8728 supports bulls target 2014 highs.
RES 4: $0.8920 – 1.382 projection of $0.8413-0.8779
RES 3: $0.8865 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: $0.8840 – 2011 High 1 Aug 2011
RES 1: $0.8793 – 2014 High June 27
LPRICE: $0.8751
SUP 1: $0.8727 – Low June 30
SUP 2: $0.8663 – Low June 25
SUP 3: $0.8642 – Low June 17
SUP 4: $0.8614 – 21-DMA
AUD/NZD bounced a little to retest the previous channel base that gave way last week but layers of resistance in the NZ$1.0790-1.0930 region including key moving averages is likely to make topside headway hard work. Bulls look for a close above the 100-DMA to confirm an easing of bearish pressure while a close above the 55-DMA remains needed to hint at a bigger bounce. Bulls will take comfort in daily studies looking to correct from O/S levels.
RES 4: NZ$1.0865 – 21-DMA
RES 3: NZ$1.0840 – 55-DMA
RES 2: NZ$1.0824 – High June 23
RES 1: NZ$1.0790 – 100-DMA
LPRICE: NZ$1.0761
SUP 1: NZ$1.0740 – Hourly support June 30
SUP 2: NZ$1.0708 – Low June 27
SUP 3: NZ$1.0662 – Bollinger band base
SUP 4: NZ$1.0648 – Monthly Low May 6
The 55-DMA confirmed its significance as support on Monday with AUD/JPY bouncing sharply from marginally below only to remain capped by the 21-DMA. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y95.83 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and an easing of bearish pressure with focus then shifting to the Y96.32-51 region and then fresh 2014 highs. While the Y95.83 level caps bears favour a break low with focus shifting to Y94.26-35.
RES 4: Y96.32 – High June 23
RES 3: Y96.09 – High June 24
RES 2: Y95.83 – High June 25
RES 1: Y95.65 – 21-DMA
LPRICE: Y95.51
SUP 1: Y95.22 – 55-DMA
SUP 2: Y94.35 – 100-DMA
SUP 3: Y94.26 – Low June 2
SUP 4: Y93.74 – Low May 28
The rally managed to close marginally above the 21-DMA (A$1.4514) and the falling daily trend line with the key A$1.4552 resistance level capping so far. Bulls need a close above the A$1.4552 June 5 high to further confirm a break of the 21-DMA and trend line with immediate focus then shifting to the A$1.4687-1.4749 region. While A$1.4552 caps bears target fresh 2014 lows with overall focus on the A$1.4051 Nov 2013 monthly low.
RES 4: A$1.4877 – 200-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4749 – High June 2
RES 2: A$1.4687 – 55-DMA
RES 1: A$1.4552 – High June 5
LPRICE: A$1.4521
SUP 1: A$1.4433 – Low June 27
SUP 2: A$1.4359 – 2014 Low June 12
SUP 3: A$1.4318 – Low Nov 20 2013
SUP 4: A$1.4144 – Low Nov 8 2013
