While the Dollar could have been supported by somewhat favorable US scheduled data flows at theend of last week, it instead has forged a lower low on its charts this morning. While the US data sweep thismorning might provide temporary support to the Dollar, unless the data is stronger than “marginally improved” wesuspect that the Dollar will be unable to hold a report fostered bounce. In fact, ongoing fighting in Iraq could haveprovided the Dollar with some safe haven support, but instead the September Dollar Index fell down to the lowestlevel since May 12th. On the other hand, the September Dollar Index might garner some support down on top ofthe 80.00 even level on the charts, as the Dollar has seen that level as a critical pivot point in the last four monthsof trade. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of June 24th for US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 21,821 contracts, an increase of 207 contracts. The Commercial traders werenet short 27,500 contracts, an increase of 542 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 5,679contracts, an increase of 335 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net longposition of 27,500 contracts. This represents an increase of 542 contracts in the net long position held by thesetraders.
Technical Outlook: The close below the 60-day moving average is an indication the longer-termtrend has turned down. Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to supportreversal action if it occurs. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day movingaverage. The market setup is somewhat negative with the close under the 1st swing support. The next downsidetarget is 79.91. The next area of resistance is around 80.18 and 80.33, while 1st support hits today at 79.97 andbelow there at 79.91.