AUD/USD continued to work its way back towards 2014 highs on Friday with initial support now noted at $0.9404. Bears now need to see a close below $0.9404 to ease bullish pressure a little and a close below $0.9322 to confirm a break of the rising daily channel base ($0.9370), 21 & 55-DMA’s and see immediate focus shift to the $0.9197-0.9233 region. For now bullish pressure dominates with fresh 2014 highs targeting $0.9757 Oct 23 2013 highs.
RES 4: $0.9622 – High Oct 28 2013
RES 3: $0.9549 – High Nov 6
RES 2: $0.9461 – 2014 high Apr 10
RES 1: $0.9445 – High June 23
LPRICE: $0.9413
SUP 1: $0.9404 – Hourly support June 27
SUP 2: $0.9366 – 21-DMA
SUP 3: $0.9322 – Low June 18
SUP 4: $0.9233 – Low June 3
Fresh 2014 and 3 year highs for the NZD/USD see immediate focus shift to the $0.8840-51 region where the 21 day upper Bollinger band and the 2011 high are located. Layers of support have developed on the hourlies with initial support noted at $0.8754. Bears need to see a close below the $0.8727 hourly support ease the current bullish pressure whereas a close below the $0.8642 June 17 low is needed to hint at a deeper correction that then targets the 200-DMA.
RES 4: $0.8920 – 1.382 projection of $0.8413-0.8779
RES 3: $0.8851 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: $0.8840 – 2011 High 1 Aug 2011
RES 1: $0.8793 – 2014 High June 27
LPRICE: $0.8781
SUP 1: $0.8754 – Hourly support June 26 & 27
SUP 2: $0.8727 – Hourly support June 26
SUP 3: $0.8663 – Low June 25
SUP 4: $0.8642 – Low June 17
AUD/NZD managed to decisively break the daily channel base on Thursday with it consolidating below on Friday. Initial resistance remains in the NZ$1.0758-90 region with bulls needing a close above the 100-DMA to confirm an easing of bearish pressure. Overall bulls now need to see a close above the 55-DMA (NZ$1.0841) to hint at a bigger bounce with a close above the 21-DMA confirming a shift in focus back to the NZ$1.1030 June monthly highs.
RES 4: NZ$1.0824 – High June 23
RES 3: NZ$1.0790 – 100-DMA
RES 2: NZ$1.0771 – High June 26
RES 1: NZ$1.0758 – High June 27
LPRICE: NZ$1.0720
SUP 1: NZ$1.0708 – Low June 27
SUP 2: NZ$1.0672 – Bollinger band base
SUP 3: NZ$1.0648 – Monthly Low May 6
SUP 4: NZ$1.0642 – Low May 27
AUD/JPY continues to oscillate around the 21-DMA but the failure to make headway above the Y95.83 resistance is of some concern to bulls. In saying that, the 55-DMA remains key support this week with bears needing a close below to confirm an end to bullish hopes and shift the immediate focus back to the Y94.26-31 region where the 100-DMA is noted. Bulls need to see a close above Y95.83 to reconfirm bullish focus and target the Y96.32-51 region.
RES 4: Y96.51 – 2014 high Apr 4
RES 3: Y96.32 – High June 23
RES 2: Y96.09 – High June 24
RES 1: Y95.83 – High June 25
LPRICE: Y95.45
SUP 1: Y95.40 – Low June 26
SUP 2: Y95.23 – 55-DMA
SUP 3: Y94.26 – Low June 2
SUP 4: Y93.74 – Low May 28
Last week’s rally remained capped by the falling daily trend line and 21-DMA both of which come in around A$1.4519 to start the new week. Bulls look for a close above the A$1.4552 June 5 high to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and trend line with immediate focus then shifting to the A$1.4687-1.4749 region. While the initial resistance caps bears will retain immediate focus on fresh 2014 lows and overall focus on the A$1.4051 Nov 2013 monthly low.
RES 4: A$1.4749 – High June 2
RES 3: A$1.4687 – 55-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4552 – High June 5
RES 1: A$1.4519 – 21-DMA, Falling daily trend line
LPRICE: A$1.4475
SUP 1: A$1.4417 – Low June 24
SUP 2: A$1.4359 – 2014 Low June 12
SUP 3: A$1.4318 – Low Nov 20 2013
SUP 4: A$1.4144 – Low Nov 8 2013
