The Dollar has seemingly rejected the lower probe seen at the end of last week. Part of that recoveryaction might be the result of ongoing gains in oil prices as the US could now be seen as a safe haven instrumentin the face of soaring global oil prices (that is probably due to rising domestic production). In fact, news over theweekend that US oil demand last year surpassed Chinese demand, highlights the importance of new US oilsupply flows. However, it is also possible that the Dollar is catching a bid ahead of the coming FOMC meeting andstatement as many expect the Fed to leave its tapering effort in place despite slack and choppy US data flows oflate. In other words, the easing bias by the ECB looks to continue to dominate the headlines and few traders thinkthe Fed is poised to make any policy adjustments. However, if the Fed Chairman acknowledges the less thanstellar progression of US numbers and or hints at weakness in US prices that could dramatically alter the viewtoward the Dollar. We see a minimal upward track on the Dollar charts, with trend-line support pegged at 80.59but that trend-line support rises to 80.65 into Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. The Commitments of Traders Futuresand Options report as of June 10th for US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 64 contracts, adecrease of 245 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 5,839 contracts, a decrease of 722 contracts.The Non-reportable traders were net long 5,774 contracts, a decrease of 478 contracts. Non-Commercial andNon-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 5,838 contracts. This represents a decrease of 723contracts in the net long position held by these traders.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break ifsupport levels are broken. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend.The daily closing price reversal up on the daily chart is somewhat positive. It is a slightly negative indicator thatthe close was lower than the pivot swing number. The next downside objective is now at 80.35. The next area ofresistance is around 80.76 and 80.86, while 1st support hits today at 80.50 and below there at 80.35.