The September Dollar forged another lower low overnight and in the process the Greenback reacheddown to the lowest level since June 14th. Talk that the UK might have to lift rates sooner than expected combinedwith a soaring Chinese currency left the Dollar weak even though it was managing to gain against the Yen andCanadian Dollar. The Dollar comes to the end of the week in a negative bias as US scheduled data wasdisappointing and today’s data isn’t expected to alter the weak view toward the US situation. It is also possiblethat some players are interested in selling the Dollar because of the potential for US military leadership in anyinternational effort to head off a civil war in Iraq. While it is possible that US PPI figures could come in aboveexpectations and that could provide some temporary support to the Dollar we don’t see that news being capableof fully altering the weak tilt in the Dollar. In fact, it would be surprising to see today’s data flow alter what appearsto be a negative track. Initial support in the September Dollar is seen down at 80.58 and then not until the 80.49level. In order to turn the tide in the Dollar back to the upside requires a rise back above 80.70.
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication.Momentum studies trending lower from overbought levels is a bearish indicator and would tend to reinforce lowerprice action. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. Therecould be some early pressure today given the market’s negative setup with the close below the 2nd swingsupport. The next downside target is 80.34. The next area of resistance is around 80.73 and 80.93, while 1stsupport hits today at 80.44 and below there at 80.34.