After having chopped around the 21-DMA to end last week the AUD/USD took a backward step on Monday with the pair dipping back towards the key $0.9180-0.9205 support region. Bears look for a close below $0.9205 to confirm a downside break and a close below the 200-DMA to add weight to a bearish outlook. Bulls continue to look for a close above the $0.9335 May 20 high to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and see bulls targeting the $0.9426-61 region.
RES 4: $0.9426 – High Apr 11
RES 3: $0.9408 – High May 14
RES 2: $0.9335 – High May 20
RES 1: $0.9275 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
LPRICE: $0.9244
SUP 1: $0.9233 – Low June 2
SUP 2: $0.9205 – Low May 2
SUP 3: $0.9180 – 200-DMA
SUP 4: $0.9124 – 100-DMA
NZD/USD headed lower to start the new week with the bearish close below the 100-DMA adding weight to the bearish case. The break below the $0.8453 previous support sees immediate focus shift to the 200-DMA with a close below not seen since early Feb 2014. Bulls need to see a close above $0.8525 to signal a false break lower and ease bearish pressure a little. Overall above the 55-DMA is needed to target 2014 highs.
RES 4: $0.8603 – 55-DMA
RES 3: $0.8595 – High May 21, 21-DMA
RES 2: $0.8525 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 1: $0.8498 – High June 2
LPRICE: $0.8451
SUP 1: $0.8426 – Low Mar 12
SUP 2: $0.8415 – 50.0% Fibonacci 0.8052-0.8778
SUP 3: $0.8356 – 200-DMA
SUP 4: $0.8329 – 61.8% Fibonacci 0.8052-0.8778
AUD/NZD started the new week with further hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA. The 200-DMA remains key to further topside with bulls targeting a close above to confirm bullish focus and shift focus to the N$1.1200-50 region. The pair confirmed the significance of the NZ$1.0908 support level with bears needing to see a close below to confirm an easing of bullish pressure. Daily studies are heading higher with room to move before becoming O/B.
RES 4: NZ$1.1069 – High Dec 6 2013
RES 3: NZ$1.1048 – High Dec 11 2013
RES 2: NZ$1.1036 – 50.0% Fibonacci 1.1579-1.0476
RES 1: NZ$1.0989 – 200-DMA
LPRICE: NZ$1.0937
SUP 1: NZ$1.0908 – Previous daily resistance now support
SUP 2: NZ$1.0853 – Alternating daily support/resistance
SUP 3: NZ$1.0827 – 21-DMA
SUP 4: NZ$1.0789 – 55-DMA
After flirting with the 55-DMA early in the new week the AUD/JPY was unable to make headway topside with the 55-DMA effectively capping on the day. The Y94.87-95.19 region remains key resistance with bulls needing a close above to see immediate focus shift to the Y96.24-51 region and fresh 2014 highs. While Y94.87-95.19 caps bears will continue to focus on the 100 and 200-DMA’s with a close below needed to add weight to the bearish case.
RES 4: Y96.51 – 2014 high Apr 4
RES 3: Y96.24 – High Apr 23
RES 2: Y95.19 – High May 19
RES 1: Y94.87 – 55-DMA
LPRICE: Y94.66
SUP 1: Y94.26 – Hourly support May 29
SUP 2: Y93.68 – Low May 29
SUP 3: Y93.54 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
SUP 4: Y93.40 – 100-DMA
After pausing ahead of the 2014 low the EUR/AUD bounced to start the new week and managed a brief pop above the 21-DMA. The bounce eased bearish pressure a little but bulls continue to look for a close above the 21-DMA to hint at a bigger bounce. The A$1.4835-74 region remains key resistance with bulls needing a close above the 200-DMA to see focus shift to the Apr monthly high. Bears need a close below the A$1.4680 support.
RES 4: A$1.4874 – 200-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4841 – 55-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4835 – High May 22
RES 1: A$1.4739 – 21-DMA
LPRICE: A$1.4706
SUP 1: A$1.4680 – Previous hourly resistance now support
SUP 2: A$1.4560 – 2014 Low May 15
SUP 3: A$1.4486 – High Nov 13 2013 now support
SUP 4: A$1.4318 – Low Nov 20 2013
