Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ: USD/JPY Analysis

USD/JPY – neutral bias – (100.50-102.50).

USDJPY remains under downward pressure from continued decline in US treasury bond yields, with the 10-year falling close to 2.4%

Although the 200-day moving average at around 101.40 is supporting USDJPY, any further declines in US treasury bond yields will result in USDJPY perhaps testing the low of 100.76 which was recorded in February or the low of 100.81 from last week.

But on the other hand better US economic indicators especially the NFP may change the treasury yield direction somewhat, even though US treasury bond demand does appear strong.

If the 10-year treasury bond yield reverses course and moves back to 2.5% or above, then there is little reason for USDJPY to move much lower from here.