Unemployment fell from 3.5% in February to 3.3% in March, in clear contrast to expectation. There is however a lot of noise in LFS unemployment and neither we nor Norges Bank give much weight to monthly changes. This month employment grew strongly in clear contrast to the trend since October when employment has moved about sideways. The trend in both employment and labour supply since the autumn is about flat. Unemployment varies around 3½%.
Norges Bank forecasts an average LFS unemployment at 3 ¾% this year. Unemployment flat at about 3 ½% is consequently somewhat on the strong side. Registered unemployment, which Norges Bank give more weight, is also somewhat on the strong side. So in conclusion labour market figures points to somewhat tighter labour market than forecasted by Norges Bank
Details:
- LFS unemployment was 3.3% in March compared to 3.5% last month
- Nordea forecast was 3.6% while consensus was 3.5%.
Nordea