The Dollar starts out on a positive track today in the wake of negative German inflation readings andongoing ideas that the ECB is preparing to ease next month. While the US growth track remains suspect, seeingthe June Dollar index manage to respect consolidation support around the even number 80.00 level suggests thatthe trade this week lacks short side interest in pressing the Dollar sharply lower. While the US will see someweekly chain store sales readings this morning and some Fed speeches later today, the attitude toward the USrecovery pace isn’t likely to change significantly today. Some might argue that the Fed is attempting to foster theidea that rates are going to remain low for a very long period of time and that in turn could provide the Dollar witha slight downward bias into mid-day and into the early afternoon trade. Potential downside targeting in the JuneDollar Index is seen at 79.84 and possibly 79.66 if the Fed members are definitively dovish in their remarks.
Technical Outlook: Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, sosome caution is warranted. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend.It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The near-term upside objective is at80.22. The next area of resistance is around 80.15 and 80.22, while 1st support hits today at 79.99 and belowthere at 79.88.