In Sweden, the week ahead will contain quite a few interesting sets of data. Mostprominent, of course, the labour market survey for April, where we expect a sidewaysunemployment rate and a tad better employment. In addition, the NIER will publishbusiness and consumer confidence, which on balance point to a better economicenvironment than normal. We see no reason to believe that this outcome willsubstantially alter that picture.
The Swedish Debt Office is selling this week in the 10Y and 30Y segment.
Despite the expected easing from the ECB in June we still believe that the SEK couldface headwind against the euro short-term as inflation is expected to drop back in Mayand as the Riksbank most likely will cut rates at the July meeting.
In Norway growth appears to have picked up after slowing towards the end of lastyear and we expect mainland GDP to grow 0.7% q/q in Q1. Strong growth in privateconsumption is the main reason for the higher rate of growth but industrial productionwas also relatively strong in Q1.
The revised budget indicated that Norges Bank might sooner than later start topurchase Norwegian kroner (and not foreign currency) in the market on behalf of theoil fund. The announcement that might come end May will be seen as NOK positive.
Denmark is launching a new 10Y benchmark DGB 1.75% Nov-25 on Tuesday. Weexpect the new 10Y benchmark to be priced close to “flat” in terms of the ASWspreadto DGB 1.5% 2023. This implies an ASW-spread of 35-37bp (mid-market to6M cibor).
Read the full report: FX Daily
Danske Bank