Last week’s rally saw spikes above the 55-DMA ($0.9361) with the rally remaining capped at $0.9374 which is the last line of defence for bears. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.9374 to end bearish hopes and shift overall focus to the 2014 high set on July 1. The Bollinger band top comes in at $0.9362 and appears to be limiting follow through. Look for a close below $0.9300 to reconfirm bearish pressure and target the 200-DMA.
RES 4: $0.9426 – High July 25
RES 3: $0.9414 – Ichimoku cloud top
RES 2: $0.9405 – Ichimoku cloud base
RES 1: $0.9374 – High Aug 6 & 28
LPRICE: $0.9321
SUP 1: $0.9310 – 21-DMA
SUP 2: $0.9300 – Low Aug 27
SUP 3: $0.9272 – Low Aug 26
SUP 4: $0.9235 – Monthly Low Aug 21
Following fresh 6 month lows last Tuesday the NZD/USD bounced from below the Bollinger band base back towards layers of resistance in the $0.8407-70 region. Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to confirm a break of the channel top and 21-DMA and an easing of bearish pressure, shifting immediate focus to $0.8513-37. Bears now look for a close below the Aug monthly low to reconfirm bearish pressure and target 2014 lows.
RES 4: $0.8513 – 38.2% Fibonacci 0.8839-0.8311
RES 3: $0.8470 – 200-DMA
RES 2: $0.8435 – 21-DMA
RES 1: $0.8407 – High Aug 28
LPRICE: $0.8361
SUP 1: $0.8323 – Bollinger band base, Hourly support Aug 26
SUP 2: $0.8311 – Monthly Low Aug 26
SUP 3: $0.8281 – Low Feb 26
SUP 4: $0.8243 – Low Feb 20
Bulls remain focused on the NZ$1.1226-1.1312 region where trend line projections and highs from Nov 2013 are noted. Initial support remains in the NZ$1.1101-29 region with bears needing a close below NZ$1.1101 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure. Bears then look for a close below NZ$1.1013 to shift overall focus back to the NZ$1.0824-88 region. O/B daily studies and the proximity of the Bollinger band top remain the key concerns for bears.
RES 4: NZ$1.1312 – High Nov 20 2013
RES 3: NZ$1.1226 – High Nov 29 2013
RES 2: NZ$1.1198 – Bollinger band top
RES 1: NZ$1.1191 – 2014 High Aug 29
LPRICE: NZ$1.1150
SUP 1: NZ$1.1129 – Low Aug 26
SUP 2: NZ$1.1101 – Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 3: NZ$1.1050 – Hourly support Aug 20
SUP 4: NZ$1.1013 – Hourly support Aug 19
Friday’s rally saw the pair fall just short of the 2014 high set Wednesday. Bears continue to look for a close below Y96.45 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and a close below the 100-DMA (Y95.44) to shift overall focus back to retests of the monthly low so far and the 200-DMA (Y94.09). While Y96.45 supports bulls initially target Y97.36-66 and overall focus remains on the weekly channel top at Y99.15.
RES 4: Y99.15 – Rising weekly channel top
RES 3: Y97.66 – Daily trend line projection
RES 2: Y97.36 – High June 3 2013
RES 1: Y97.25 – 2014 High Aug 27
LPRICE: Y97.11
SUP 1: y96.78 – Low Aug 27
SUP 2: Y96.45 – Low Aug 22
SUP 3: Y95.94 – Low Aug 21
SUP 4: Y95.59 – Hourly support Aug 18
Fresh 2014 and 13 month lows were seen Friday before the EUR/AUD bounced a little. In saying that, bears now need a close above $1.4147 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure with a close above the 21-DMA remaining needed to shift focus back to the A$1.4478 level. While A$1.4147 caps immediate focus shifts to the A$1.3812-61 region last seen in June/July 2013. Key concerns for bears remain O/S daily studies and the proximity of the Bollinger band base.
RES 4: A$1.4319- 21-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4283 – High Aug 22
RES 2: A$1.4221 – High Aug 26
RES 1: A$1.4147 – High Aug 27
LPRICE: A$1.4081
SUP 1: A$1.4037 – Monthly Low Aug 29
SUP 2: A$1.3988 – 100-WMA
SUP 3: A$1.3861 – Monthly Low July 10 2013
SUP 4: A$1.3812 – Monthly Low June 14 2013
