The Dollar bulls have to be concerned as better than expected US Non-Farm payrolls ultimately failedto support the Dollar. While some economists pointed to trouble in the participation rate, the headline data wasvery impressive but it failed to meet lofty expectations. Even more surprising is that the Dollar hasn’t been able togarner lift from soft Euro zone Producer Price readings and from an escalation of tensions and anxiety in theUkraine. In short, the bear camp appears to have resolve and the world isn’t easily enticed back into the long sideof the Greenback. Therefore we don’t expect to see much of a bounce in the Dollar today unless US ServicesPMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing and the global manufacturing PMI show better than expected growth. TheCommitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of April 29th for US Dollar showed Non-Commercialtraders were net short 329 contracts, a decrease of 1,305 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short6,065 contracts, an increase of 1,231 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 6,395 contracts, adecrease of 73 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 6,066contracts. This represents an increase of 1,232 contracts in the net long position held by these traders. JuneDollar support holds at 79.48 but any softer than expected US data could easily put the Dollar down to theconsolidation lows of 79.375.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. Themarket’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. Themarket’s close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next downside objective is now at79.10. With a reading under 30, the 9-day RSI is approaching oversold levels. The next area of resistance isaround 79.61 and 79.84, while 1st support hits today at 79.25 and below there at 79.10.