While the Dollar has managed to hold its ground above yesterday’s low, it has seen minimal followthroughafter Thursday’s reversal as it continues to be weighed down by mixed US economic signals this week. There may be some mild safe-haven support from elevated risk concerns out of the Ukraine, but the marketclearly is waiting for today’s US jobs data before taking the Dollar decisively in either direction. Weather-relatedproblems are unlikely to be issue for an April reading, and the ADP Payrolls numbers earlier this week doesprovide some optimism for today’s data. However, an anemic first quarter GDP number may have dialed down themarket’s expectations for Non-Farm Payrolls to the extent that a number above +180,000 should provide theDollar with a decent boost. There needs to be consistent positive US data to challenge the late April highs, but thebear camp may require some pretty bleak numbers this morning for the Dollar to drive down towards new lowground.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. Themarket’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. Themarket’s close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next downside objective is now at79.10. With a reading under 30, the 9-day RSI is approaching oversold levels. The next area of resistance isaround 79.61 and 79.84, while 1st support hits today at 79.25 and below there at 79.10.