While the path of least resistance in the Swiss remains up, the June Swiss is technically overbought andperhaps fundamentally expensive on its return to 1.14. While volume has spiked on the last two rallies above 1.14and volume spiked up on the most recent pulse up to 1.14, we think the Swiss is forging a massive head andshoulders top that could be realized in the event that US data improves and Ukraine tensions keep easternEurope off balance.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower ifsupport levels are taken out. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trendremains positive. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat bullish. The market has aslightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The next downside objective is 112.95. The next area ofresistance is around 114.02 and 114.40, while 1st support hits today at 113.30 and below there at 112.95.