The Dollar has retained some buying interest through the long holiday weekend as US economicoptimism remains in place and the situation in the Ukraine leaves the Dollar with a minor leg up on the Euro andSwiss. While the trade has recently set a rather high bar for US scheduled data flows, US data has been strongenough to lift the Dollar off last week’s lows. With expectations calling for almost a 1% rise in US LeadingIndicators later this morning and the outlook toward the Chinese economy still soft, the US Dollar looks tocontinue to win by default. In fact, favorable Japanese data overnight has undermined the Yen and that in turngives the Dollar another minor outside market lift. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as ofApril 15th for US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 566 contracts, an increase of 1,067contracts which represents a change from a net long to net short position. The Commercial traders were net short4,776 contracts, a decrease of 2,737 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 5,342 contracts, adecrease of 1,671 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of4,776 contracts. This represents a decrease of 2,738 contracts in the net long position held by these traders. Keysupport in the Dollar moves up to 79.76 and there might be little in the way of resistance seen until the 80.12level.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. Themarket’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. Themarket’s close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next downside objective is now at79.10. With a reading under 30, the 9-day RSI is approaching oversold levels. The next area of resistance isaround 79.61 and 79.84, while 1st support hits today at 79.25 and below there at 79.10.