Wasn’t 2014 meant to be the year of the falling $A? We expect it still will be and our FX Strategy team are not rushing to change their forecast for $A to be US 84 cents by end of 2014 and US 80 cents by end of 2015. – If the good news in last week’s labour force report is sustained then the RBA are done with cuts and will likely stay on hold at 2½% for some time. For all that, it is premature to conclude the unemployment rate has peaked with headwinds from the mining investment slump and a probable tight Federal Budget still ahead. – Focus firmly on next Wednesday’s Q1 CPI report. Tomorrow we get the RBA Board Minutes.
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