Improving macro-economic optimism and a quiet Black Sea region were able to lift the June Euro thisweek, but lukewarm data out of Germany may be providing some pause for thought this morning. A larger thanexpected decline in German exports during February has taken some of the steam out of the Euro’s recoveryrally, particularly with comments from a French official that a strong Euro is a “brake” on exports. ECB officialsmay be well away from starting up fresh QE measures for the Euro zone, but it is interesting to note that the JuneEuro has been unable to climb past the 138.20 level since March 26th. Near-term support for the June Euro willbe at the 137.82 level, but hawkish rhetoric from the FOMC Meeting Minutes could lead to an extended pullbacklate in the session.
Technical Outlook: The cross over and close above the 40-day moving average indicates the longer-termtrend has turned up. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. Rising from oversoldlevels, daily momentum studies would support higher prices, especially on a close above resistance. The closeabove the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market has a bullish tilt cominginto today’s trade with the close above the 2nd swing resistance. The near-term upside target is at 138.5725. Thenext area of resistance is around 138.2949 and 138.5725, while 1st support hits today at 137.5450 and belowthere at 137.0725.