The Yen has managed to bounce off this week’s lows as if the trade has become temporarily oversold.However, a noted rise in open interest on the Yen slide of the last two weeks would seem to suggest that thedowntrend pattern was embraced by the trade. We ultimately see a retest of the 95.00 level, especially if USpayrolls live up to their initial expectations and show a return to growth in the US economy. While the tradeexpects to see a Japanese trade surplus result ahead, the structural issues in Japan look to leave the Yen out offavor and it could take an even lower Yen to rekindle the Japanese manufacturing export machine.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. Themarket’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. It is aslightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside target is now at 95.83.With a reading under 30, the 9-day RSI is approaching oversold levels. The next area of resistance is around96.45 and 96.60, while 1st support hits today at 96.07 and below there at 95.83.