The Euro is poised just above a downside breakout on its charts and while it might draft some temporarylift off no movement from the ECB, slack data from Europe overnight and the threat of somewhat positive datafrom the US over the coming two days, would seem to leave the bear camp in control. The ECB never acts whenit should, it only acts when it is forced to act and their actions are already a forgone conclusion. We think it will bedifficult for the June Euro to avoid a return to the 1.37 level. In the event that US payrolls on Friday are above+200,000 that would probably put the Euro into a downside breakout to the lowest levels since February 27th.
Technical Outlook: The close under the 40-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend could beturning down. Daily stochastics declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. Themarket’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The outside daydown is a negative signal. The close below the 1st swing support could weigh on the market. The next downsideobjective is now at 137.0625. The next area of resistance is around 137.9549 and 138.4025, while 1st supporthits today at 137.2850 and below there at 137.0625.