Norges Bank is widely expected to leave not only rates unchanged at 1.50% at the meeting tomorrow, but also its rate path. Indeed, with CPI, unemployment and GDP growth, all running more or less in line with the Bank’s target, there is arguably no need to change the rate trajectory. Looking at other short-term economic stats in Norway, and if anything there is a slightly weaker trend, with credit growth trending lower, consumer confidence weaker than expected in Q1, industrial output/PMI flatlining and unemployment slightly higher. Against that the house price decline seems to have abated somewhat, with February showing a 0.3% MoM rise, the first MoM increase since August last year, and following two months of only very marginal MoM declines (-0.09% in Jan and -0.04% in Dec). In level terms, prices are currently down less than 3% from the peak back in May/June last year.
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