The reversal from near 1.40 in Euro occurred at wedge resistance that dates back to 2013; this wedge resistance aligned nicely with channel resistance from early Feb. The resolution for this large wedge will ideally be swift and the initial downside target is wedge support below 1.36. (daily) S/t, prices are not yet complete with the initial impulsive decline but a sell-off today/tomorrow to 1.3707 would satisfy an ideal symmetry target for wave-v. Support for today is 1.3749 & 1.3707; resistance is the 38.2% retracement level at 1.3825. We expect that a move to March lows early this week will be accompanied by a bullish RSI divergence and thus signal that a minor upward correction can unfold. (hourly) Conviction: Med / High Trade: Short at 1.3794; sl 1.3955, tp 1.3315. Levels: Support – 1.3749, 1.3707, 1.3643 Resistance – 1.3786, 1.3825, 1.3844
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Nomura