The dip below the 21-DMA ($0.9005) was brief for with the move higher pausing ahead of layers of resistance noted in the $0.9104-0.9203 region including the 200-DMA. A close below hourly support at $0.9050 is needed to relieve the current bullish pressure that is focusing on layers of resistance in the $0.9104-0.9203 region with a close below $0.8994 hinting at a deeper correction and seeing focus shift to the 55-DMA and rising channel base.
R 4: $0.9168 – Monthly high Dec 2
R 3: $0.9151 – 200-DMA
R 2: $0.9133 – High Mar 7
R 1: $0.9104 – High Mar 13
LP: $0.9084
S 1: $0.9050 – Hourly support Mar 17
S 2: $0.8994 – Low Mar 13
S 3: $0.8933 – 55-DMA
S 4: $0.8914 – Rising daily channel base
The $0.8507 level remains key support for the NZD/USD with a close below needed to ease the continuing bullish pressure and see overbought daily studies correcting and starting to weigh. A close below sees immediate focus shift lower to retests of the $0.8403-67 region. While $0.8507 supports, bulls look for a move higher that targets a break of the 2014 with focus then shifting to the 2013 high.
R 4: $0.8842 – 2011 high Apr 1 2011
R 3: $0.8681 – Rising daily channel top
R 2: $0.8676 – 2013 high Apr 11 2013
R 1: $0.8605 – 2014 high Mar 13
LP: $0.8564
S 1: $0.8507 – Hourly breakout level Mar 13
S 2: $0.8467 – Rising daily channel base
S 3: $0.8425 – Low Mar 12
S 4: $0.8403 – 21-DMA
Daily tech studies remain oversold and are the only negative for a sustained move lower with the pair bouncing a little from just above fresh 2 month lows to start the new week. A close above the NZ$1.0642 high from Wednesday remains needed to ease bearish pressure while a close above the 21-DMA (NZ$1.0716) and 55-DMA remains needed to end bearish aspirations and see focus shift to layers of resistance NZ$1.0858-1.0945.
R 4: NZ$1.0737 – 55-DMA
R 3: NZ$1.0703 – High Mar 10
R 2: NZ$1.0688 – Falling daily channel top
R 1: NZ$1.0642 – High Mar 12
LP: NZ$1.0600
S 1: NZ$1.0579 – Hourly support Mar 17
S 2: NZ$1.0535 – Low Mar 13
S 3: NZ$1.0492 – 2014 low Jan 24
S 4: NZ$1.0435 – 2005 low Dec 5 2005
The sharp bounce to start the new week saw the AUD/JPY break back above key moving averages before dipping marginally below the 100-DMA into the close. The 21-DMA is noted as initial support with a close below needed to re-ignite bearish pressure and see a retest of the rising daily channel base targeted. While the 21-DMA supports bullish focus returns targeting a retest of the Y93.43-59 region.
R 4: Y94.59 – Monthly high Nov 20
R 3: Y93.72 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 2: Y93.59 – High Mar 10
R 1: Y93.43 – High Mar 11
LP: Y92.40
S 1: Y92.12 – 21-DMA
S 2: Y91.03 – Rising daily channel base
S 3: Y90.53 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 4: Y90.08 – Low Mar 3
EUR/AUD dipped below the rising daily channel base and key moving averages to start the week before bouncing a little. A close below the A$1.5284 low from Monday is needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and end bullish aspirations with focus then turning bearish and initially targeting the Mar 6 low. Bulls now need a close above Monday’s high to reconfirm bullish focus with a close above last week’s high needed to see focus shift to 2014 highs
R 4: A$1.5668 – High Jan 28
R 3: A$1.5579 – High Jan 31
R 2: A$1.5537 – High Mar 12
R 1: A$1.5449 – High Mar 17
LP: A$1.5320
S 1: A$1.5314 – 21-DMA
S 2: A$1.5284 – Low Mar 17
S 3: A$1.5148 – Low Mar 6
S 4: A$1.5107 – 100-DMA
