The Dollar is showing a modest bounce this morning but the trade is likely to wait for US IndustrialProduction figures for its primary direction today. With the Crimean situation, one might have expected more flowtoward the Dollar, but instead there doesn’t appear to be much in the way of global anxiety from that event.Therefore the focus of the trade might shift back toward US economic data, but with only minimal gains expectedin US Industrial production readings and unchanged expectations for Capacity Utilization, the Dollar doesn’t lookto get much in the way of fresh assistance from its data. However, the Dollar might see some minimal supportfrom higher readings from the Empire State and NAHB results. The trend on the charts favors the bear camp andit could take better than expected US data, just to halt the erosion on the charts. The Commitments of TradersFutures and Options report as of March 11th for US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 197contracts, a decrease of 560 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 4,975 contracts, a decrease of404 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 5,172 contracts, a decrease of 964 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 4,975 contracts. This represents adecrease of 404 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. Themarket’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. Themarket’s close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next downside objective is now at79.10. With a reading under 30, the 9-day RSI is approaching oversold levels. The next area of resistance isaround 79.61 and 79.84, while 1st support hits today at 79.25 and below there at 79.10.