AUD/USD broke sharply above the $0.9000 level yesterday with the move initially heading above the 100-DMA before dipping given back most of the gains above the $0.9000 level which is seen as pivotal. A close below the $0.9000 level confirms a break below the 21-DMA with bears then looking for a continuation lower initially targeting the the $0.8875-0.8926 region with a close below targeting the 2014 low.
R 4: $0.9158 – 200-DMA
R 3: $0.9133 – High Mar 7
R 2: $0.9057 – 100-DMA
R 1: $0.9042 – Hourly resistance Mar 13
LP: $0.9023
S 1: $0.9000 – Hourly breakout level Mar 13
S 2: $0.8926 – 55-DMA
S 3: $0.8900 – Rising daily channel base
S 4: $0.8875 – Low Feb 5
Fresh 2014 and 10 month highs for the NZD/USD Thursday fell just short of the 2013 high before giving back the majority of the day’s gains with O/B tech studies likely to have limited topside follow through. A close below the $0.8507 support is needed to hint at cracks in the up-trend while a close below $0.8424 confirms a break of the channel base and sees bears targeting the $0.8244 Feb 20 low.
R 4: $0.8676 – 2013 high Apr 11 2013
R 3: $0.8653 – rising daily channel top
R 2: $0.8605 – 2014 high Mar 13
R 1: $0.8552 – Hourly resistsance Mar 13
LP: $0.8538
S 1: $0.8507 – Hourly breakout level Mar 13
S 2: $0.8425 – Low Mar 12, Rising daily channel base
S 3: $0.8384 – 21-DMA
S 4: $0.8372 – Hourly support Mar 4
Bearish focus firmly remains with the AUD/NZD within sight of the 2014 low and the 2005 low noted just below. Daily tech studies remain oversold and are the only negative for a sustained move lower as the pair hovers above fresh 2 month lows. A close above the NZ$1.0645 high from Wednesday is now needed to ease bearish pressure while a close above the 21-DMA remains needed to end bearish aspirations.
R 4: NZ$1.0735 – 21-DMA
R 3: NZ$1.0703 – High Mar 10
R 2: NZ$1.0642 – High Mar 12
R 1: NZ$1.0600 – Hourly resistance Mar 13
LP: NZ$1.0560
S 1: NZ$1.0535 – Low Mar 13
S 2: NZ$1.0492 – 2014 low Jan 24
S 3: NZ$1.0435 – 2005 low Dec 5 2005
S 4: NZ$1.0372 – 21 week lower Bollinger band
The sharp move higher on Thursday shot above the 100-DMA before stalling at the Mar 11 highs and correcting lower to make new lows for the day and again dip below the 200-DMA (Y91.80). Initial resistance is noted at the 100-DMA that has been somewhat pivotal support/resistance this week with bears initially targeting the Y91.35 Mar 5 low. A close above the 100-DMA is needed to ease the bearish pressure with above Y93.59 to shift overall focus higher.
R 4: Y94.59 – Monthly high Nov 20
R 3: Y93.59 – High Mar 10
R 2: Y93.43 – High Mar 11
R 1: Y92.52 – 100-DMA
LP: Y91.75
S 1: Y91.54 – Low Mar 13
S 2: Y91.35 – Low Mar 5
S 3: Y90.84 – Rising daily channel base
S 4: Y90.08 – Low Mar 3
Failure to retest the Jan 31 high combined with the sharp correction lower and bearish close sees immediate focus shift to layers of support A$1.5270-1.5310. Bears look for a close below this level to hint at a deeper correction with a close below the A$1.4985 Feb 12 low needed to confirm a break of the 100-DMA (A$1.5087) and see focus shift lower to the 200-DMA (A$1.4734). Bulls need a close above A$1.5537 to hint at further topside
R 4: A$1.5668 – High Jan 28
R 3: A$1.5579 – High Jan 31
R 2: A$1.5537 – High Mar 12
R 1: A$1.5410 – Hourly resistance Mar 13
LP: A$1.5359
S 1: A$1.5310 – High Mar 7 now support
S 2: A$1.5297 – 21-DMA
S 3: A$1.5270 – Rising daily channel base
S 4: A$1.5148 – Low Mar 6
