With a definitive washout in the Dollar overnight it would seem like expectations of a pause in taperingare on the rise. While somewhat less likely, it is also possible that the Dollar is seeing long liquidation off fearsthat it might be a target of retaliation from Russia in the event that sanctions are put in place against Russia.Some traders are suggesting that the Dollar is under pressure because of the prospect of a rise in initial claimslater this morning as a slow data week means today’s data will stand out more than usual. With China warning ona slowdown, the Crimea situation looming and emerging market central banks asking the US Fed to go slow ontapering, it is possible that the market is moving to factor in a March pause in US tapering. With the failure on thecharts overnight and slack US data expected later today, the next significant support level might not be seen untilweekly chart support down at 79.21.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. Themarket’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The market’s closebelow the 1st swing support number suggests a moderately negative setup for today. The next downside target is79.35. The next area of resistance is around 79.73 and 79.94, while 1st support hits today at 79.44 and belowthere at 79.35.