Apparently seeing slack UK February retail sales figures, a minimal +0.1% 4th quarter Italian GDP resultand residual concerns toward the Ukraine have left the bear camp with a slight edge. Clearly the Euro wastechnically overbought into the recent highs and with the big range up move on March 6th putting the Euro up tothe highest level since 2011, the Euro was probably fundamentally priced for perfection. The failure to hold above1.3852 might set the stage for a slide back down to 1.3825 or perhaps even back down to an old weekly gapdown at 1.3792 to 1.3783.
Technical Outlook: Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The market’sshort-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. It is a slightly negative indicator that theclose was under the swing pivot. The next upside target is 139.1350. The market is becoming somewhatoverbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around 138.9300 and 139.1350, while 1stsupport hits today at 138.5700 and below there at 138.4150.