The Dollar is showing some initial weakness after forging a temporary higher high overnight. Clearly ashift in the Ukraine situation has removed some safe haven impetus from the Dollar to start today but the trademight shift its focus right back to the status of the US economy in the wake of early private weekly chain storesales results. While the private weekly retail sales figures are considered to be 3rd or 4th tier by some traders andeconomists, the thirst for direction on the US economy might make those readings more important. In retrospect,the Dollar was headed lower prior to the Ukraine situation and a failure to hold 80.00 today, might shift thetechnical edge back in favor of the bear camp. However, seeing the March Dollar index return to the vicinity of thisweek’s lows, into the Non farm payroll report on Friday, might put shorts in an extremely risky position, especiallysince market estimates peg the Friday payroll result to be 40,000 to 50,000 jobs above the January reading of113,000. In conclusion, those looking to be long the Dollar need to get something positive from either weekly USchain store sales figures and or from the New York ISM release today, as the safe haven impetus is temporarilylost.
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastics gave a bullish indicator with a crossover up. Dailystochastics are showing positive momentum from oversold levels, which should reinforce a move higher if nearterm resistance is taken out. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-daymoving average. A positive setup occurred with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The near-term upsidetarget is at 80.34. The next area of resistance is around 80.24 and 80.34, while 1st support hits today at 79.92and below there at 79.69.