After having again failed to take out the key $0.9085 resistance level last week the aussie headed lower with the pair closing below the 21-DMA ($0.8966) and pausing just above the 55-DMA ($0.8912). The break below Thursday’s low has added weight to the bearish case with the 2014 low currently the focus to start the new week. Bulls need to see a close above Friday’s high to ease bearish pressure
R 4: $0.9085 – Monthly high Jan 13
R 3: $0.9079 – 38.2% Fibonacci 0.9754-0.8662
R 2: $0.9048 – High Feb 24
R 1: $0.8991 – High Feb 28
LP: $0.8896
S 1: $0.8870 – Hourly support Feb 4 & 5, 50% Fibo
S 2: $0.8810 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 3: $0.8662 – 2014 Low Jan 24
S 4: $0.8634 – Low July19 2010
Key moving averages remain clustered in the $0.8266-79 region with bears needing a close below the $0.8244 Feb 20 low to confirm a break and see overall focus return to retests of the $0.8052 Feb monthly low so far. A break below Friday’s low to start the new week has eased the bullish pressure a little with a close below this level today needed to hint at a retest of the $0.8244-95 region
R 4: $0.8555 – High May 6
R 3: $0.8541 – Monthly high Oct 22
R 2: $0.8442 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 1: $0.8428 – 2014 high Jan 14
LP: $0.836
S 1: $0.8295 – Low Feb 27
S 2: $0.8244 – Low Feb 20
S 3: $0.8182 – 61.8% Fibonacci 0.8052-0.8392
S 4: $0.8139 – 200-DMA
The close below the 21-DMA last week saw bears take control once more with overall focus having returned to retests of the 2014 low and immediate focus having shifted to a retest of the NZ$1.0570 Jan 29 low. Bulls will need to see the pair close back above Friday’s high to ease the bearish pressure while a close above the $1.0858 resistance level is needed to see the immediate focus shift higher to the key NZ$1.0905-45 resistance region.
R 4: NZ$1.0858 – Hourly resistance Feb 20
R 3: NZ$1.0834 – High Feb 26
R 2: NZ$1.0817 – 21 day moving average
R 1: NZ$1.0718 – High Feb 28
LP: NZ$1.0621
S 1: NZ$1.0570 – Low Jan 29
S 2: NZ$1.0553 – Low Jan 27
S 3: NZ$1.0494 – 2014 low Jan 24
S 4: NZ$1.0434 – 21 week lower Bollinger band
After having failed ahead of the Feb 12 & 18 highs, the falling daily trend line off the Oct monthly high and the 100-DMA last week the pair closed marginally above the lows for the week with the bears now looking for a continuation lower that targets the 2014 low. Bulls will look for a close above Friday’s high to ease the bearish pressure with a close above the Y92.96 resistance needed to see overall focus shift to 2013 highs
R 4: Y93.67 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 3: Y92.96 – High Feb 12 & 18
R 2: Y92.36 – High Feb 26
R 1: Y91.84 – High Feb 27
LP: Y90.21
S 1: Y89.85 – Low Feb 5
S 2: Y89.44 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 3: Y88.27 – 2014 low Feb 3
S 4: Y87.76 – Low Sept 2
EUR/AUD continued to recover lost ground after finding support at the A$1.5184 level last week. Bulls will now be looking for a continuation higher that targets the 2014 high with a close below last week’s A$1.5184 low needed to end bullish aspirations and see focus shift back to the A$1.4985-87 region with the 100-DMA noted at A$1.4985.
R 4: A$1.5950 – 21 week upper Bollinger band
R 3: A$1.5840 – 2014 high Jan 24
R 2: A$1.5668 – High Jan 28
R 1: A$1.5480 – High Feb 4
LP: A$1.5465
S 1: A$1.5184 – Low Feb 24
S 2: A$1.5090 – Low Feb 18
S 3: A$1.4987 – Low Feb 12
S 4: A$1.4939 – 50.0% Fibonacci 1.4056-1.5832
